Ongoing geopolitical conflicts continue to impact the supply and transportation of crude oil and certain petrochemical products, exacerbating market volatility. Against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions, the market is concerned not only that production facilities in affected regions may be disrupted, leading to reduced output, but also that transportation disruptions could result in fewer imported shipments arriving at ports, further driving up prices for related products.
Industry Updates
This week (March 9–15), international oil prices rose sharply. WTI crude futures closed at $98.71 per barrel, marking a weekly increase of 8.59%; Brent crude futures closed at $103.14 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 11.27%. It is reported that the oil export hubs in the relevant regions handle the vast majority of local oil exports. Recent disruptions to facilities in the area have further intensified market concerns about supply disruptions. As a critical global oil transport corridor, the safety of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz significantly influences oil price trends. The strait handles approximately 25% of the world’s total seaborne oil trade in crude oil and petroleum products, and alternative transport options are extremely limited.
Looking ahead, geopolitical risks will dominate the short term, and developments in the situation must be closely monitored. In the medium to long term, supply surplus pressures may lead to a downward shift in the central level of international oil prices; however, geopolitical factors and other events could still deliver unexpected shocks to international oil prices, intensifying their volatility. The market generally believes that the release of strategic petroleum reserves this time can only alleviate short-term market shocks and is unlikely to alter the long-term supply-demand dynamics. The key factors will still depend on the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz and the evolution of geopolitical conflicts.
PX prices rose this week (March 9–15). As of March 15, the average PX market price stood at RMB10,372.42 per ton, up 23.61% from the previous week and 53.83% higher than the same period last year. Amid geopolitical tensions, international oil prices surged rapidly, with naphtha costs providing support for PX prices. On the supply side, PX units in some regions were shut down this week, and a few plants reduced their operating rates, leading to a decline in the industry’s operating rate. The domestic PX operating rate fell by 3.72 percentage points from the previous week to 86.02%, while output decreased by 3.85% to 734,500 metric tons. In terms of margins, profit performance varied across different PX production processes. While the rise in international naphtha prices slowed, the PX-naphtha spread reached over $300/ton; however, MX prices rose significantly, resulting in a PX-MX spread of less than $100/ton. Looking ahead, Asian plants have a significant number of PX maintenance schedules planned for the second quarter. If geopolitical conflicts persist, prices may still have considerable upside potential.
Acrylic acid prices rose this week (March 9–15). As of March 15, the average market price for acrylic acid stood at 13,000 RMB/ton, up 63.52% from the previous week and 106.35% higher than the same period last year. Driven by rising international oil prices, the cost of propylene—a key raw material—has increased, leading acrylic acid producers to maintain firm pricing amid cost pressures. On the supply side, domestic acrylic acid production this week stood at 69,000 metric tons, a further decrease of 4.14% from the previous week, primarily due to maintenance shutdowns at some manufacturers’ facilities. On the demand side, downstream users focused on fulfilling contracts and reducing inventory, with limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials. This week, the operating rate of domestic adhesive tape master roll manufacturers was around 38.85%, a slight decrease from the previous week. In terms of costs and profits, the acrylic acid industry’s gross profit this week was RMB4,686.73 per ton, a 364.70% increase from last week, with a gross margin of 38.84%. Looking ahead, acrylic acid prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels in the short term.
Looking ahead to 2026, the current round of industry capacity expansion is nearing its conclusion. Measures such as “anti-overcapacity” are expected to catalyze a recovery from the industry’s profit trough. Meanwhile, new materials, benefiting from the rapid growth of downstream demand, are poised to embark on a new phase of high growth. Currently, policies continue to guide the chemical industry toward “anti-over-competition,” helping the sector break free from the dilemma of compensating for price declines with volume and achieving revenue growth without profit growth, thereby gradually emerging from the profit trough. Meanwhile, the rebound in international oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions is further pushing up prices for products along the relevant chemical industry chain. Key areas to watch in March: 1. The impact of geopolitical events on crude oil and certain petrochemical product prices; 2. Leading companies in undervalued sectors; 3. Price increases in relevant sub-sectors against the backdrop of “anti-over-competition” and similar initiatives; 4. The electronic materials sector amid robust downstream demand and the growing importance of self-reliance, as well as certain new energy materials sectors benefiting from price hikes.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on March 16, the benchmark price for acrylic acid on SunSirs stood at 13,083.33 RMB/ton, representing an increase of 106.04% compared to the beginning of the month (6,350.00 RMB /ton).
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