Recently, copper prices have continued to fluctuate at high levels, and the interference of silver prices on the movement rhythm of copper prices remains obvious. Affected by the sharp drop in silver prices, copper prices fell rapidly in succession at the end of January and the beginning of February. Subsequently, silver prices stabilized to some extent, and copper prices then turned into a volatile pattern with the fluctuation range gradually narrowing. The movement rhythm of LME copper is relatively consistent with that of SHFE copper. However, due to the low inventory in the London market, LME copper has performed relatively stronger than SHFE copper.
Overseas market turbulence, copper prices cannot escape the drag
Recently, overseas macro markets have been volatile. On January 30, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Warsh believes that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is "too bloated and has too long a duration" and hopes to significantly shift the Fed's holdings from long-term Treasury bonds to short-term Treasury bonds with the cooperation of Treasury bond issuances. This will lead to a rise in the term premium of long-term and short-term Treasury bonds, thereby forcing the Federal Reserve to lower policy interest rates, which may trigger turmoil in the bond market. Affected by this, the price of COMEX silver fell rapidly by 26.37% on the same day, which also dragged down the performance of the precious metals and non-ferrous metals sectors, and copper prices were not spared.
The U.S. macroeconomic data showed a weak performance. The preliminary value of the U.S. manufacturing PMI in February was 51.2, which was lower than the previous value and the lowest in seven months; the U.S. private sector added 22,000 new jobs in January, far below the market expectation of 45,000; in January, U.S. companies announced 108,435 layoffs, an increase of 118% compared with the same period last year and 205% compared with December 2025. However, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that in January, U.S. non-farm payroll employment increased by 130,000, significantly higher than the market expectation of 65,000, the largest increase since April 2025; the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell slightly to 4.3%, lower than the expected and previous value of 4.4%; the U.S. core PCE price index rose 0.4% month-on-month in December 2025, the largest increase in nearly a year, and the market still pushed back the expected time of the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut.
On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a "preemptive" military strike against Iran. Iran retaliated against multiple targets in Israel and other parts of the Middle East, stating that it would carry out a "devastating retaliatory strike" against Israel. On the same day, U.S. President Trump said in a video speech that the attack aimed to destroy Iran's missile industry, eliminate Iran's navy, and ensure that Iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons. According to a CCTV reporter's information on March 1 local time, the U.S. military operations against Iran may last about 4 weeks. Meanwhile, the leaders of Britain, France, and Germany issued a joint statement, saying that they might take "necessary defensive actions" against Iran. The leaders of the three countries have agreed to cooperate with the United States and other allies in the region.
The volatility in overseas macro markets will continue to bring out the financial attributes of copper prices. The impact of precious metal price trends on copper prices will persist and is expected to drive up copper prices to a certain extent.
Arbitrage affects destocking, and inventories in non-US markets accumulate
In February, the overall operation of overseas copper mines was stable. On February 14, Zambia's mining regulatory authority stated that it had suspended the operation of Mopani Copper Mines' Mufulira copper mine because the company failed to count the number of all underground workers at the mine. The strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile, which started on January 2, ended on February 6. The supply of overseas mines remains tight. In December 2025, the output of the Escondida mine dropped by 16.5% to 111,500 tons; the output of Collahuasi in the same period decreased by 12.1% to 36,200 tons.
In February, the overall price difference between refined copper and scrap copper (including tax) in China remained stable, staying within the range of 2,350 yuan to 3,300 yuan per ton. The level of this price difference in February was lower than that in January, mainly because after the New Year's Day, local authorities tightened compliance inspections on the "reverse invoicing" business. This forced enterprises producing recycled copper rods and scrap anode plates to fully switch to purchasing tax-included recycled copper raw materials to avoid risks after rectification, resulting in a tight supply of tax-included scrap copper in some regions. In February, the copper futures market operated steadily, and the demand for scrap copper declined around the Spring Festival, so the focus of the price difference between refined copper and scrap copper shifted downward.
In February, domestic sulfuric acid prices continued to run at a high level. Although precious metal prices fluctuated, they remained high, which stimulated smelters' production. According to SMM's forecast, domestic refined copper output in February is expected to decline slightly compared with that in January, and there are some opportunities for refined copper imports. However, due to the weakening demand from downstream industries affected by the Spring Festival holiday, domestic social inventories have accumulated significantly.
Obvious seasonal characteristics, consumption is expected to rebound
SMM's forecast data shows that in February, the projected operating rate of domestic wire and cable enterprises is 55.61%. This year's Spring Festival holiday came relatively late, which had a significant impact on the production of wire and cable enterprises in February. According to SMM's research and statistics, in 2026, the Spring Festival holiday duration for copper wire and cable enterprises is mainly flat or slightly shortened, with the shortened days mostly ranging from 3 to 4 days. Currently, it is the peak production season for the air - conditioning industry, but the sales of air conditioners in this cold season failed to continue the booming trend of the previous year. Both the export and domestic sales growth rates have declined year - on - year, and the overall production of air conditioners continues to operate in line with seasonal characteristics. According to the analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January, China's automobile industry generally operated steadily. The consumption in the passenger car market decreased, the commercial vehicle market continued to show a positive trend, the new energy vehicle market operated smoothly, and automobile exports continued to grow. The main reasons for the decline in the automobile consumer market are as follows: first, the adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy; second, the购车 subsidy policies in many places are in the period of annual alternation; third, part of the consumer demand was released in advance in 2025.
Overall, the focus of attention in overseas macro markets remains on geopolitical risks and interference from precious metal prices, and the financial attributes of copper are expected to be further enhanced.
From a fundamental perspective, the supply of overseas ores continues to be tight, the circulation speed of scrap copper has picked up, and global exchanges have seen significant inventory accumulation without inventory pressure. In terms of demand, the impact of the Spring Festival holiday has weakened, and production and sales at various end-demand ports will rebound, with differences in copper usage effects. Recently, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a strong bias.
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