Price trend
According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, from March 9 to 13, domestic BDO prices rose from 7,557 RMB/ton to 7,757 RMB/ton. During this period, prices increased by 2.65%, representing a month-on-month rise of 5.23% but a year-on-year decline of 2.60%. Domestic BDO supply continued to contract, while cost-side pressures intensified; meanwhile, high transaction prices achieved in auctions bolstered suppliers' resolve to support the market. However, actual downstream demand remained lackluster; while orders for immediate necessities continued to trickle in, buyers showed resistance to the high price levels. Consequently, the overall market trend edged upward within a narrow range, yet actual trading volumes remained limited.
Market analysis
Regarding the supply side—specifically plant operations—although Changcheng Energy’s catalyst replacement unit had restarted, Ningxia Weiyuan’s facility had shut down, while the plants at Hualu and Junzheng remained under maintenance. Consequently, the industry’s capacity utilization rate remained at a relatively low level, providing supportive fundamentals for the supply side. Overall, the BDO supply landscape provided factors leaning toward the bullish side.
Statistics on the operational status of selected production facilities:
|
region |
Device dynamics |
|
Shaanxi Shanhua |
The first phase was parked in early August 2024, and the second phase was parked on February 22, 2025, and the restart time was undecided |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
The third phase of the plant was stopped, and the first, second, fourth and fifth phases were running steadily |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
300,000 tons/year BDO plant, the current load was around 70-80% |
|
Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua |
The two sets of 200,000-ton units were relatively stable in operation |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The first phase of the 60,000-ton plant and the second phase of the 70,000+70,000 tons/year plant were running stably |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
The load of the device was 60-70% |
|
Sichuan Tianhua |
The first phase of the 25,000 tons/year and the second phase of the 60,000-ton plant were running stably |
Regarding costs, influenced by regional conflicts and shifts in internal supply-demand dynamics, the prices of key raw materials—such as calcium carbide, methanol, natural gas, and maleic anhydride—had risen, thereby intensifying cost-side pressures within the BDO industry. Concurrently, the volume of auctions increased throughout the week, with many transactions settling at elevated price levels, thereby bolstering suppliers' resolve to maintain firm market pricing. With market trends for raw calcium carbide and methanol trending upward, cost-side factors were temporarily exerting a bullish influence on the BDO market.
On the demand side, driven by rising raw material prices, market conditions across various downstream sectors had trended upward; however, due to bottlenecks in cost pass-through, operating rates within these downstream industries remained largely unchanged, with most participants primarily focusing on depleting their existing raw material inventories. Overall, the demand side provided favorable factors for BDO market.
Market Outlook
As BDO prices rise and downstream acceptance weakened, intensifying the tug-of-war between supply and demand, analysts at SunSirs anticipate that the domestic BDO market will primarily undergo volatile consolidation.
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