The PTA market has recently experienced a significant rally, with the main PTA futures contract surging from 5,200 RMB/ton to over 7,000 RMB/ton within just two weeks—a cumulative increase of 36%. The primary catalyst for this price surge is the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. These tensions have reverberated through the energy supply chain, directly impacting PTA feedstock availability and thereby underpinning the firm price trajectory.

I. Catalyst: Escalating Middle East Geopolitics Disrupts Global Energy Markets

The ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East, with the US-Israel-Iran conflict now entering its twelfth day, has significantly impacted global energy markets, laying the groundwork for PTA price increases. As the “throat” of global energy transportation, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have surged. This strait handles approximately 25% of the world's seaborne oil shipments, and any disruption to shipping there directly threatens the stability of global crude oil supplies.

Simultaneously, attacks on oil and gas facilities across multiple Middle Eastern nations have forced major producers to cut output, directly driving sharp volatility in international oil prices, which briefly approached the $120 per barrel threshold. To stabilize oil prices, the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency have agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves. However, with no signs of conflict de-escalation and persistent risks of energy supply disruptions, the market widely anticipates that prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would further drive up international oil prices, providing strong support for PTA costs.

II. Transmission Pathway: Geopolitical Conflict → Raw Material Shortages → Passive PTA Price Increases

The escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions has directly impacted China's PX (paraxylene) and PTA industrial chains. The anticipated reduction in PX supply has materialized, driving PTA prices upward.

China's high dependence on imported crude oil and naphtha means disruptions in Hormuz shipping directly fuel domestic raw material shortage expectations, driving up international oil prices. This rapidly transmits to the PTA industry through the complete chain: “crude oil price hike → naphtha price follow-through → PX cost escalation.” As PTA's direct production feedstock, rising PX prices significantly compress PTA processing margins, forcing PTA prices to passively follow suit.

Currently, PX supply contraction is an established fact: Multiple domestic refineries have implemented preventive capacity reductions due to disruptions in long-term feedstock supply agreements. Among them, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Fujian United's PX units are operating at reduced capacity, while Ningbo Daqiao's PX unit has been shut down. As of March 6, China's PX operating rate has fallen to 90.4%, clearly indicating a supply contraction trend.

III. Supply-Demand Dynamics: Short-Term PTA Supply and Demand Both Rising, Strong Expectations for Future Supply Contraction

Unlike the substantive PX supply contraction, PTA supply has yet to experience a real reduction, presenting a scenario of simultaneous growth in both supply and demand. PTA units previously undergoing maintenance (such as Dushan Energy and INEOS) have gradually resumed operations, lifting the industry's operating rate to 81% and maintaining ample supply.

However, it is important to note that with the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, raw material shortages are unlikely to ease, creating strong expectations for PTA supply contraction in the later period. Overall, the geopolitical conflict is driving a top-down price reassessment across the polyester industry chain. As a core link in the chain, PTA benefits from strong price support due to feedstock cost pass-through and its own anticipated supply contraction.

IV. Downstream Constraints: Squeeze from High Costs and Low Demand, Negative Feedback Risks Emerge

Following the sharp rise in raw material prices, downstream polyester and textile segments are facing a dual squeeze from high costs and low demand, becoming the key factor constraining the sustained surge in PTA prices.

Regarding profits, while polyester products have followed raw material price increases, high-priced transactions remain challenging, with processing margins for most polyester products significantly compressed. On the demand side, despite entering the traditional peak season of “Golden March and Silver April,” the terminal market's capacity to absorb high-priced raw materials is limited, making the problem of “difficulty in raising prices and losses from accepting orders” particularly prominent. Should overseas geopolitical tensions persist, disrupted cost pass-through could force downstream enterprises to cut production, thereby exerting downward pressure on high PTA prices.

V. Market Outlook and Risk Warning

Overall, the escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions has indirectly impacted Asian refinery operating rates, fueling strong expectations for production cuts among chemical enterprises—the core driver behind PTA's sharp price surge. Looking ahead, while various factors may amplify price volatility in chemical products, persistent shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will inevitably lead to raw material and PTA supply shortages. Consequently, PTA prices are unlikely to peak soon and are expected to maintain a predominantly firm trajectory.

Two key risks warrant close attention: First, a substantive easing of Middle East geopolitical tensions could restore energy supplies, drive down oil prices, and weaken cost support for PTA. Second, intensified negative feedback from downstream demand to high-priced raw materials could expand production cuts among downstream enterprises, suppressing PTA price gains.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on March 13, the benchmark price for PTA reported by SunSirs stood at RMB 6,145.26 per ton, representing an increase of 17.32% compared to the beginning of the month (RMB5,237.90 per ton).

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