This week (March 9–13), the polyester filament market experienced a roller-coaster ride. Driven by geopolitical crises affecting crude oil, prices surged at the start of the week—ignited by a spike in oil futures—sending polyester filament prices skyrocketing by over 1,000 points in a single day, with leading manufacturers even hiking rates by a staggering 2,500 points and market sentiment instantly reaching a fever pitch. However, just as quickly as oil prices peaked, they took a nosedive, causing the market to make an abrupt U-turn and undergo a sharp correction. Subsequently, as oil prices stabilized and major manufacturers moved to hold their ground on pricing, the market rebounded rapidly. Within the span of just a few days, the sector endured a violent oscillation—surging, crashing, and then rebounding—marking a quintessential tug-of-war between cost-side pressures and market sentiment.

I. Weekly Prices (Mainstream East China, as of March 13)

POY 150D/48F: 9,300–9,800 RMB/ton (Weekly increase: 600–800)

FDY 150D/96F: 9,600–10,500 RMB/ton (Weekly increase: 700–900)

DTY 150D/48F: 10,700–11,400 RMB/ton (Weekly increase: 800–1,000)

This Week's Rhythm: Surged → Plunged → Rebounded → Stabilizated

March 9: Surged by 1,000–1,500 RMB/ton in a single day, with market leaders climbing as much as 2,500 RMB/ton.

March 10: Retreated from high levels by 500–1,500 RMB/ton.

March 11–12: Stabilized and rebounded, with broad-based gains of approximately 800 RMB/ton.

March 13: PTA weakened, while polyester filament remained relatively stable; trading volume was light.

II. Core Causes of Price Fluctuations

1. Surging Prices (March 8–9)

Crude Oil Surges (Primary Driver): Escalating conflict in the Middle East drove Brent crude to $92.69 per barrel, pushing up costs across the board.

Raw Materials Rise in Tandem: PTA breached the 7,100 RMB/ton mark, while Ethylene Glycol neared 4,900 RMB/ton, reflecting a rapid pass-through of rising costs.

Industry Leaders Control Supply and Support Prices: Rongsheng, Hengli, and Tongkun Collectively Raise Quotes; Spot Supply Tightens

Downstream Resumption and Inventory Replenishment: Weaving Operations Rebound; Essential Replenishment Drives Bullish Market Sentiment

2. Plunge (March 10)

Oil Prices Surge and Retreat: Raw Material Outlook Reverses; PTA and MEG Tumble

Downstream Buyers Refuse to Take Delivery: High Prices Dampen Weavers' Purchasing Appetite; Sales-to-Production Ratio Drops to Just 33%

Profit-Taking Sell-off: Manufacturers and Traders Liquidate Positions Following Previous Surge; Prices Undergo Rapid Correction

3. Rebound (March 11–12)

Oil Prices Stabilize, PTA Rebounds: Cost-side factors strengthen once again, prompting a follow-through rebound in polyester filament.

Industry Leaders Continue to Hold Firm on Pricing: Manufacturers remain reluctant to sell at low prices; tight spot market supply provides support for current price levels.

Modest Replenishment Driven by Essential Demand: With downstream inventories running low, buyers step in to meet immediate operational needs, leading to a pickup in trading activity.

III. Supply, Demand, and Inventory

Supply: Polyester operating rates stand at approximately 81%; leading producers are reluctant to sell, resulting in tight spot market availability.

Demand: Weaving operations have resumed, but buyers remain cautious about chasing higher prices; the production-to-sales ratio for the week was a mere 14.3%.

Inventory: POY stands at 15–26 days, FDY at 10–25 days, and DTY at 16–26 days; the overall inventory level is neutral.

IV. Market Outlook (Short-Term)

Sunsirs anticipates that in the short term (late March), polyester filament yarn prices will fluctuate at elevated levels, with increased volatility, tracking the trends of crude oil and PTA. Upside potential is limited. In the medium term (starting in April): the market is expected to return to rationality; the upward momentum will slow, processing margins will recover, the central price level will gradually trend downward, and market dynamics will revert to being driven primarily by supply and demand.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.