According to institutional research, the import of rapeseed from coastal areas will gradually increase from March to May 2026. It is estimated that 2 ships will arrive at the port in March, totaling about 195,000 tons; Four ships are expected to arrive at the port in April, totaling approximately 260,000 tons; It is estimated that 5 ships will arrive at the port in May, with a total of approximately 325,000 tons.

The increased import volume of rapeseed will increase the supply of raw materials, and it is expected that about 780,000 tons will arrive at the port from March to May 2026, which will increase rapeseed oil production and increase market supply pressure. In terms of spot prices, the decrease in raw material costs and oversupply of finished products may lead to a decline in prices. In terms of futures prices, the current closing price of the main contract 2605 is 10,076 RMB/ton (up and down +80), but the expectation of import growth may suppress future gains. Changes in contract holdings indicate a shift towards caution in market sentiment, and short-term downside risks have increased.

The increase in rapeseed imports will directly drive up the production of rapeseed meal, as the supply of rapeseed meal as a by-product is increasing synchronously. The cumulative arrival of about 780,000 tons from March to May may lead to oversupply in the spot market and price pressure. In terms of futures prices, the closing price of the main contract 2605 was 2,492 RMB/ton (up and down +42), but the news of increased import volume may reverse the current upward trend. The decrease in contract holdings (-45,781) indicates a weakening of bullish confidence, and the price is facing downward adjustment pressure in the future.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.