Price trend

According to the spot market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of lithium carbonate has been fluctuating recently. As of March 11, the benchmark price of battery-grade lithium carbonate of SunSirs was 158,000 RMB/ton, up 3.27% from the same period last week (March 4), up 14.49% month-on-month, and up 109.7% year-on-year.

Market analysis

Supply side: Domestic production capacity expansion + significant increase in overseas shipments

Entering March, domestic lithium salt plants have fully resumed production, resulting in a significant increase in supply. Regionally, the operating rates of core lithium spodumene extraction areas such as Sichuan, Jiangxi, and Xinjiang had increased substantially, becoming the core driver of the production rebound. Contract manufacturers, supported by ample orders, continued to maintain high operating rates. The lithium mica extraction sector, constrained by tight ore supply, had  maintained a stable operating rate with no significant increase in capacity. Overall, domestic lithium carbonate supply recovered from holiday and maintenance disruptions and entered a steady production growth phase, with further capacity releases expected to continue.

The overseas lithium salt supply was also recovering, with core lithium salt exporting countries such as Chile and Australia increasing their shipping activity. February saw a significant increase in shipments. Although some countries experienced short-term export policy disruptions, the overall shipping trend was positive. This increased overseas supply will arrive at domestic ports via sea freight, further supplementing the domestic market supply. According to the latest statistics from Chilean customs, Chile's total lithium carbonate exports in February 2026 reached 26,852 tons, a 17.29% increase month-on-month and a surge of 84.40% year-on-year. Of this, 22,381 tons were exported to China, a significant 32% increase month-on-month and a staggering 86% increase year-on-year. Simultaneously, Chile shipped 12,100 tons of lithium sulfate (equivalent to 6,100 tons of LCE) to China that month, indicating a continued increase in overseas supply to China.

Demand side: Downstream demand was recovering, and the prosperity of the industry chain was rebounding

As the core application of lithium carbonate, cathode materials were seeing leading companies accelerate their production pace across the board. Production plans for mainstream categories such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials were significantly increased, with output showing varying degrees of growth compared to the previous period. At the same time, the energy storage sector, benefiting from both domestic and international demand, maintained a strong demand trend, becoming a core pillar driving lithium carbonate demand and supporting the release of cathode material production capacity. This had promoted the resonance of supply and demand in the upstream and downstream of the lithium battery industry chain, and the industry's recovery pace continued to accelerate.

Market outlook

According to analysts at SunSirs, lithium carbonate prices were fluctuating due to a combination of strong demand and rising supply, and are expected to maintain their current trend in the short term. However, further attention should be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

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