I. Core Market Trends:

Recently (March 1-9, 2026), the acrylic acid market experienced an epic surge, driven entirely by escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Monitoring data showed that acrylic acid prices soared from 6,350 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, reaching 11,917 RMB/ton for premium-grade products in East China by March 9th, a weekly increase of over 86%, setting a new high for the year and in recent times, making it the leading performer in the chemical sector.

Looking at the trend chart, prices slowly climbed from March 1st to 5th, gradually rising from 6,350 RMB/ton to the 7,000 RMB/ton range; from March 6th to 8th, prices entered a phase of accelerated increase, with daily increases repeatedly exceeding 1,000 RMB/ton; on March 9th, there was even a pulse-like jump, directly breaking through the 11,900 RMB/ton mark, with the price curve showing a nearly vertical, steep upward trend, and market sentiment and price elasticity were completely activated.

II. Deeper Drivers: Three Logics Supporting Price Increases

On the cost side: Escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East directly pushed up international oil prices, with Brent crude prices quickly rebounding to the $65-75/barrel range. The Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy transport route, saw increased navigational risks, raising market concerns about energy supply. The cost of propylene, the core raw material for acrylic acid, also rose, coupled with concerns about propane supply in the Middle East and increased logistics costs. This provided strong, rigid support for acrylic acid prices from the raw material side, significantly improving cost transmission efficiency.

On the supply side: Although the Middle East was not a major global acrylic acid producing region (its capacity is only 400,000-450,000 tons/year, accounting for less than 5% of the global total), as a core supply region for energy and chemical raw materials, its instability directly affects the logistics and supply of upstream raw materials such as propylene and LPG globally. Market concerns about restricted navigation in the Strait of Hormuz have led to soaring international fuel and chemical raw material transportation costs and reduced efficiency, further exacerbating cost pressures on domestic acrylic acid companies, forming a transmission chain of "raw material price increases - tightening expectations - price increases in tandem".

On the demand side: Faced with continuously rising prices and cost pressures, downstream enterprises engaged in panic buying, with some stockpiling to ensure production stability, leading to a tightening of the spot market. Simultaneously, investor sentiment flowed into the chemical commodities sector, with acrylic acid, a commodity with high price elasticity, becoming a target of investment and further amplifying the price increase. Furthermore, the domestic acrylic acid industry as a whole maintained stable operating rates and had ample supply; this price increase was not driven by supply contraction, but rather by a combination of cost-push and sentiment-driven factors.

III. Market Outlook:

1. With the conflict easing and shipping routes returning to normal, oil prices are at $65-75 per barrel. Acrylic acid prices surged briefly before fluctuating and falling back, with the increase narrowing to 5%-10%, returning to 10,000-11,000 RMB/ton, and the upward cycle lasting 2-4 weeks.

2. The Strait of Hormuz will be temporarily closed for 1-2 weeks, with oil prices at $80-90 per barrel. Prices will continue to rise by 15%-25% and break through 12,000 RMB/ton, extending the strong period to 4-8 weeks.

3. Prolonged conflict leading to energy disruptions exceeding one month, causing oil prices to break $90 per barrel. Price increases exceeding 30%, with the upward cycle extending to 3-6 months (this scenario is relatively unlikely).

IV. Summary

This round of acrylic acid price surge is a typical example of a "geopolitical event-driven" price spike, with increases far exceeding normal cyclical fluctuations. The core driver is the convergence of rising energy costs and market sentiment. In the short term, prices will continue to be dominated by geopolitical situations and oil price trends, remaining volatile at high levels. In the medium to long term, if geopolitical conflicts ease, prices may gradually return to fundamentals, but the risk of a correction due to weak downstream demand should be carefully monitored. For companies in the industry chain, it is crucial to rationally plan inventory and procurement schedules to mitigate short-term price volatility risks. Investors should focus on monitoring changes in crude oil prices, raw material costs, and corporate profitability to seize opportunities in different market phases.

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