Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, nickel prices initially fell before rising last week. By the end of the week, spot nickel was quoted at 140,633.33 RMB/ton, down 0.67% from the beginning of the week and up 8.98% year-on-year.

According to the weekly price chart from SunSirs, nickel prices fell for 3 weeks in the past 12 weeks and rose for 9 weeks, with a recent slight correction.

Market analysis

On the macro front: US ADP employment increased by 63,000 in February, the largest increase since November 2025, exceeding market expectations of 50,000, weakening expectations of interest rate cuts; uncertainty remained regarding the Middle East conflict.

On the supply side: China's refined nickel production in February 2026 was 32,600 tons, a decrease of 7.45% month-on-month and a decrease of 1.65% year-on-year. The estimated refined nickel production in China in March was 39,430 tons, an increase of 20.95% month-on-month and an increase of 7.54% year-on-year.

On the demand side: Overall demand in the electroplating downstream sector remained relatively stable, with little room for further growth. Alloy demand still accounted for the majority, with strong demand from the military and shipbuilding industries. Companies purchased at lower prices, and the "Two Sessions" emphasized the long-term positive impact of defense spending. Off-season demand for stainless steel was insufficient to boost end-user demand. Steel mills still had some raw material inventory from the previous period and remained cautious about rising raw material prices. Downstream demand for ternary lithium batteries was driven by export rushes and pre-holiday stockpiling, but nickel sulfate purchases remained low, resulting in stable nickel sulfate market prices and sluggish trading.

News: Recently, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources projected nickel ore production of 209 million tons this year, which had attracted market attention. The target production was mainly based on historical estimates of actual production, which differs from the RKAB quota itself. In addition, APNI stated that RKAB can be increased by 30% in July, and the quota constraint situation will continue to be monitored.

Market outlook

In summary, recent increases in overseas macroeconomic uncertainties and continued disruptions in the mining sector have provided relatively strong support for raw materials. However, weak demand and high inventory levels are the main constraints. While there is strong support at the bottom, the upward momentum is limited. It is expected that nickel prices will mainly remain range-bound.

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