Price trend
According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, from March 2nd to 6th, the domestic BDO price rose from 7,371 RMB/ton to 7,557 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.52% during the period, a 2.72% increase month-on-month, and a 5.07% decrease year-on-year. Supply decreased while overall downstream demand increased. Influenced by geopolitical conflicts, other raw material prices surged, driving up prices in many downstream industries. Furthermore, online auctions resulted in premium transactions, indicating a supportive attitude from suppliers, which propelled the BDO market to rebound from its low point.
On the supply side, BDO plants such as Hualu Hengsheng, Great Wall Energy, and Inner Mongolia Junzheng successively shut down for maintenance or refrigerant replacement, reducing the supply volume and strengthening supply-side support. These factors were generally favorable for BDO market.
Statistics on the operating status of some production plants:
|
region |
Device dynamics |
|
Shaanxi Shanhua |
The first phase was parked in early August 2024, and the second phase was parked on February 22, 2025, and the restart time is undecided |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
The third phase of the plant was stopped, and the first, second, fourth and fifth phases were running steadily |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
300,000 tons/year BDO plant, the load was around 70-80% |
|
Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua |
The two sets of 200,000-ton units were relatively stable in operation |
|
Xinjiang Xiye |
The first phase of the 60,000-ton plant and the second phase of the 70,000+70,000 tons/year plant were running stably |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
The load of the device was 60-70% |
|
Sichuan Tianhua |
The first phase of the 25,000 tons/year and the second phase of the 60,000-ton plant were running stably |
On the cost side, for raw material calcium carbide: the calcium carbide market experienced a rapid decline, with producers actively shipping goods and some companies accumulating inventory, resulting in flexible transactions. For raw material methanol: the methanol market saw a significant surge, with the domestic methanol price in Taicang around 2,520 RMB/ton as of 10:00 AM on March 2nd. With the calcium carbide market weak and methanol prices rising, the impact of BDO costs was mixed.
On the demand side, downstream industries saw factories gradually resume operations after the Lantern Festival, leading to an overall increase in operating rates and increased consumption of raw materials. The BDO supply side created a positive environment for BDO market.
Market outlook
The supply-demand gap continued to narrow, supporting suppliers' market-supporting sentiment, leading to a slightly bullish and volatile market. SunSirs' BDO analyst predicts that the domestic BDO market is likely to recover and consolidate.
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