This round of acrylic acid price increases was mainly driven by rising costs of crude oil, propane, and propylene due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East, rather than by a shortage of production capacity. The market was characterized by short-term strength, pulsating increases, and weak sustainability. The price turning point will be determined by the trend of oil prices, the stabilization of raw material price increases, and the willingness of downstream buyers to purchase.

I. Market Operation Overview

As of March 3, 2026, the benchmark price of acrylic acid from SunSirs was 6,583.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.67% compared with the beginning of the month (6,350.00 RMB/ton).

During the same period, the spot price of propylene in East China was 6,480 RMB/ton, up 30 RMB/ton week-on-week. PDH costs were 6,800-7,000 RMB/ton, with costs continuing to rise. Brent crude oil prices rose to $65-75/barrel due to geopolitical premiums. The Strait of Hormuz handles 20%-30% of global seaborne crude oil trade, leading to expectations of a tightening energy supply chain. China's total acrylic acid production capacity is approximately 4.4 million tons/year, with a self-sufficiency rate of nearly 100%. Middle Eastern acrylic acid production capacity is only 400,000-450,000 tons/year, accounting for less than 5% of the global market, and has minimal direct impact on domestic supply.

II. Cost Side

Acrylic acid primarily uses the propylene oxidation process, with raw material costs accounting for over 60%, resulting in strong cost pass-through. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East had driven up crude oil and LPG prices, leading to increases in raw material prices such as propane and naphtha, which in turn raised propylene costs and were passed on to acrylic acid, causing the market to passively follow suit. The high proportion of domestic PDH (Propane-to-Hydrogen) routes made China sensitive to propane supply and logistics from the Middle East. Energy-side risk premiums have quickly translated into cost support, which is the core driver of this round of price increases.

III. Supply Side

The Middle East is not a major global acrylic acid producing region, and there was temporarily no direct risk of supply disruption to the domestic market. The overall supply side remained ample. However, the potential disruptions from geopolitical risks cannot be ignored. If navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, it will directly affect the logistics efficiency and supply expectations of global LPG and propylene, pushing up international fuel and chemical raw material prices, and indirectly exacerbating cost pressures on domestic acrylic acid companies. As of March 3, the industry as a whole was operating stably, and domestic supply was sufficient. The price increase was not due to supply contraction, but rather the result of cost-push inflation and companies holding firm on prices.

IV. Market Outlook

Under the baseline scenario, if the conflict is limited and shipping operates normally, oil prices will trade between $65 and $75 per barrel, and acrylic acid prices are expected to rise by 5%-10%, lasting for 2-4 weeks, before gradually declining as downstream resistance increases. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for 1-2 weeks, oil prices will rise to $80-90 per barrel, and acrylic acid prices may jump by 15%-25%, maintaining this strong upward trend for 4-8 weeks, before gradually declining after the conflict eases. If a prolonged conflict occurs and raw material supply disruptions exceed one month, oil prices will break through $90 per barrel, and acrylic acid prices could rise by more than 30%, extending the upward cycle to 3-6 months; however, this scenario is less likely. 

In summary, the main risks in the current market are concentrated in the unexpected escalation of geopolitical conflicts, significant fluctuations in oil prices, excessive pressure on downstream profits leading to production cuts, and the return of the industry to a loose monetary policy due to new capacity coming online. Going forward, it is crucial to monitor three key indicators: Brent crude oil prices, East China propylene spot prices, propane/CP prices, and changes in PDH profit margins.

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