Historical data suggests that the rebar market will enter a destocking phase within 2 to 3 weeks after the Spring Festival holiday. Price fluctuations will depend on downstream consumption data and consumption expectations.

Supply elasticity determines the magnitude of price volatility.

From 2012 to 2015, rebar entered a destocking phase after the Spring Festival holiday, with prices trending downward. From 2016 to 2021, rebar also entered a destocking phase post-holiday, but prices rose. From 2022 to 2025, rebar is projected to be in a destocking phase after the holiday, with prices trending downward.

Overall, no clear pattern emerged in rebar price movements during post-holiday destocking phases: 2012–2015: China's economic growth shifted gears toward quality-driven development amid a sluggish real estate sector, leading to sustained price declines. 2016–2019: Deepening supply-side structural reforms coupled with measured demand stimulus drove sustained price increases followed by volatility. In 2020, to counter the economic impact of the public health event, policy countercyclical adjustments intensified, liquidity eased, and both steel consumption data and expectations improved, leading to a sharp price surge followed by a correction but still ending with a significant overall increase. In 2022, the real estate sector remained weak, with poor steel consumption data and expectations, causing prices to plummet after a brief spike. In 2023, steel consumption data and expectations deteriorated, while the real estate sector showed slow recovery. Prices rose slightly before retreating; From 2024 to 2025, steel consumption data and expectations remained weak. Ample supplies of iron ore, coking coal, and coke led to overall price declines.

Thus, rebar price fluctuations depend on downstream consumption data and expectations, while supply elasticity determines the magnitude of price volatility.

Inventories at Low Levels

As of March 4, 2026, total national rebar inventories stood at 8.006 million tons, up 13.5% year-on-year and at a decade-low. The rebar market remains in a stockpiling phase. Based on historical destocking timelines, destocking is expected to commence in 2-3 weeks.

Regarding exports, China implemented an export licensing system for steel products effective January 1, 2026. Compliance costs for exporting low-value-added steel products such as billets, ordinary hot-rolled coil, and sections have risen, leading to an expected decline in exports of these items. Meanwhile, the export share of high-value-added steel products like high-end plates, specialty steel, and alloy steel is anticipated to increase further. Simultaneously, recent U.S.-Iran tensions have impacted both direct and indirect steel exports. While total steel exports are projected to decline this year, the export structure is expected to improve.

Regarding downstream consumption, secondary housing listings have declined in some first-tier cities, while transaction volumes remain elevated. Property prices in prime locations have stabilized, with overall declines narrowing and market pessimism easing. Nevertheless, real estate developers remain cautious in land acquisitions, and both new construction starts and ongoing construction areas are likely to continue their year-on-year decline, suppressing steel demand.

Summary

This year, China's steel export structure will further improve, though total exports may decline. The slow recovery in the real estate sector will suppress steel consumption, with overall demand expectations remaining weak. Rebar inventories are at low levels for this time of year. Overall, rebar fundamentals show no significant improvement, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on March 5, the benchmark price of rebar on SunSirs was 3142.84 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.07% compared with the beginning of the month (3145.00 RMB/ton).

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