Last week, immediately following the Spring Festival holiday, potassium chloride prices began a modest upward trend, rising by approximately CNY50 per tonne. Industry analysts attribute this price increase primarily to persistently tight supply conditions. Although port arrivals have increased, supply remains highly concentrated, leading to persistent market tightness. This is particularly evident in granular potassium chloride, where spot supply falls short of demand, driving sustained price increases.
Currently, domestic potash production remains in its winter maintenance period, with only Yantai Potash continuing operations. Sales are primarily directed towards factory clients. However, it is understood that Zangge Potash will soon conclude its maintenance and resume production, which should alleviate supply constraints. The official delivered price for 60% powdered crystalline potassium chloride in Qinghai stands at ¥3,100, with market circulation prices hovering around ¥3,300. Prices remain stable for now, though supply remains scarce.
Port inventories of imported potash sit at approximately 2.9 million tonnes, a significant increase from pre-Spring Festival levels and already exceeding last year's figures for the same period. Port prices for 62% white potash range from CNY 3,150 to 3,650, with lower prices serving as indicative rates and higher prices predominantly in Northeast China. Port prices for 60% large red granule potassium chloride stand at 3,300 to CNY 3,350, with higher prices mainly in southern regions and lower quotations in Northeast markets. Border trade arrivals at Manzhouli Port remain limited, with white potash supplies still constrained. Current border trade prices for 62% white potash range from CNY 3150 to 3450, with the lower end serving as a reference price and the higher end representing the mainstream rate. Reports indicate premium prices have climbed to CNY 3500.
Last week, sulphate potash market prices remained stable. Operating rates for processed sulphate potash plants hovered around 40%, down from pre-Spring Festival levels. High prices underpinned by elevated costs were not accepted by the market, with ex-factory prices for 52% fully water-soluble granular sulphate potash from processed sources hovering around ¥4,000 – a price clearly inverted relative to costs. Operating rates for resource-based sulphate potash plants remained at a sound level, maintaining stable operations. The delivered price for 50% powdered potassium sulphate stood at approximately CNY 3,600, with favourable sales and stable pricing.
Overall, as the spring market commences, pressure to offload high-priced potash fertilisers has intensified. On one hand, downstream demand remains subdued, with widespread cost inversions across the potassium sulphate sector prompting cautious procurement and needs-based purchasing by enterprises. On the other, the full impact of policy adjustments has yet to materialise, leaving the market in a wait-and-see mode.
Looking ahead, supply structures show marked divergence: white potash supplies remain tight with firm pricing, while large-grain potassium chloride supplies are ample with softening prices. Compounded by persistent industry constraints and potential further policy adjustments, potash fertiliser prices may exhibit tentative upward momentum but face limited overall upside. The market is expected to stabilise within a range-bound pattern.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on March 5, the benchmark price of SunSirs potassium chloride (imported) was RMB 3,700.00/ton, an increase of 0.91% compared with the beginning of the month (RMB 3,666.67/ton).
Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：
Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).
SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.
