Macroeconomics

1. [ECB Interest Rates] Eurozone money market traders have almost ruled out the possibility of a European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut in 2026. Traders now believe there is an 8% chance of an ECB rate cut before December, compared to a 40% forecast on February 27.

2. [Bank of Japan] Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino did not signal a March rate hike, and market pricing indicates only a 6% probability of a rate hike this month. The Middle East situation is becoming the biggest variable—if the oil price shock continues, Japanese inflation could climb an additional 2 percentage points to over 4%, at which point the Bank of Japan might even intervene as early as March, leaving the April rate hike window open.

3. [Shipping] The International Transport Workers' Federation (ITF) announced on March 2 that the Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding waters have been designated a "high-risk area" following the escalation of military conflict in the region. Currently, more than 200 ships are anchored in or near the strait, and safe navigation remains highly uncertain.

Agricultural Products

1. [White Sugar] According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, as of the end of February, only one sugar mill in Guangxi had finished crushing, a significant decrease compared to the same period last year. It is estimated that Guangxi's sugar production in February will be 1.6-1.8 million tons, higher than the 1.35 million tons in the same period last year, the highest level in nearly ten crushing seasons. In February, all sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, with no mills yet finishing. Due to increased sugarcane production, sugar production in February is expected to reach 580,000 tons, higher than the 560,000 tons in the same period last year. The data center predicts that the national sugar production for the 2025/26 crushing season will be 11.76 million tons, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year.

2. [Palm Oil] As of February 27, 2026 (week 9), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions nationwide was 786,700 tons, an increase of 80,300 tons from the previous week, an increase of 11.37%; and an increase of 372,100 tons from 414,600 tons last year, an increase of 89.75%.

3. [Palm Oil] Indonesia's Ministry of Trade announced that the reference export price for crude palm oil in March 2026 is set at $938.87/ton, higher than February's $918.47/ton.

4. [Soybeans] Data from the European Commission shows that EU oilseed and vegetable oil imports for the 2025/26 marketing year are generally lower than last year, reflecting increased domestic oilseed production and crushing expectations. As of February 22, 2024/25 (starting July 1), the EU's 27 member states imported approximately 8.11 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 11% compared to the same period in 2024/25, and a year-on-year decrease of 11% last week.

5. [Soybean Oil] Monthly crushing data released by the US Department of Agriculture shows that as of the end of January 2026, US soybean oil stocks were 2.433 billion pounds, an increase of 11.7% month-on-month and a surge of 33.9% year-on-year. This figure also exceeded market expectations, reaching the highest level since April 2023.

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