Macroeconomics

1. [ECB Interest Rates] Eurozone money market traders have almost ruled out the possibility of a European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut in 2026. Traders now believe there is an 8% chance of an ECB rate cut before December, compared to a 40% forecast on February 27.

2. [Bank of Japan] Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino did not signal a March rate hike, and market pricing indicates only a 6% probability of a rate hike this month. The Middle East situation is becoming the biggest variable—if the oil price shock continues, Japanese inflation could climb an additional 2 percentage points to over 4%, at which point the Bank of Japan might even intervene as early as March, leaving the April rate hike window open.

3. [Shipping] The International Transport Workers' Federation (ITF) announced on March 2 that the Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding waters have been designated a "high-risk area" following the escalation of military conflict in the region. Currently, more than 200 ships are anchored in or near the strait, and safe navigation remains highly uncertain.

Building Materials

1. [Paper] Recently, Sun Paper and Wuzhou Special Paper issued notices that, starting March 5th, they will uniformly raise the price of their white kraft paper products by 300 RMB/ton.

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