Macroeconomics

1. [ECB Interest Rates] Eurozone money market traders have almost ruled out the possibility of a European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut in 2026. Traders now believe there is an 8% chance of an ECB rate cut before December, compared to a 40% forecast on February 27.

2. [Bank of Japan] Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino did not signal a March rate hike, and market pricing indicates only a 6% probability of a rate hike this month. The Middle East situation is becoming the biggest variable—if the oil price shock continues, Japanese inflation could climb an additional 2 percentage points to over 4%, at which point the Bank of Japan might even intervene as early as March, leaving the April rate hike window open.

3. [Shipping] The International Transport Workers' Federation (ITF) announced on March 2 that the Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding waters have been designated a "high-risk area" following the escalation of military conflict in the region. Currently, more than 200 ships are anchored in or near the strait, and safe navigation remains highly uncertain.

Plastics and Rubber

1. [PP] Ningbo Kingfa's two PP production lines have a combined capacity of 800,000 tons/year. Line 1 was shut down at the end of February and is expected to resume operations around March 10th. Line 2 is operating at normal capacity.

2. [BR] Yangzi Petrochemical's 100,000 tons/year butadiene rubber unit plans to produce 9,800 tons of high-cis-butadiene rubber in March 2026.

Maoming Petrochemical's 100,000 tons/year high-cis-butadiene rubber unit has two lines operating, with a planned production of 8,500 tons in March 2026.

Yanshan Petrochemical's 120,000 tons/year high-cis-butadiene rubber unit is operating normally, with a planned production of 5,800 tons in March 2026.

Qilu Petrochemical's 80,000 tons/year high-cis-butadiene rubber unit plans to produce approximately 5,800 tons in March 2026.

Jinzhou Petrochemical's 30,000-ton/year high-cis butadiene rubber unit plans to produce 3,100 tons of butadiene rubber in March 2026.

Daqing Petrochemical's 160,000-ton/year high-cis butadiene rubber unit plans to produce around 12,600 tons of high-cis butadiene rubber in March 2026.

3. [BR] On March 2nd, Sinopec Northeast Sales Company raised the price of butadiene rubber by 200 RMB/ton: Currently, the ex-factory price of butadiene rubber in Daqing and Jinzhou is 12,800 RMB/ton, with prices increasing from warehouses in Northeast China.

4. [Natural Rubber] On March 2nd, the market price of natural rubber raw materials in Thailand rose: Smoked sheet was quoted at 72.50 baht/kg, up 0.50 baht/kg; latex was quoted at 68.80 baht/kg, up 0.50 baht/kg; cup lump was quoted at 60.70 baht/kg, up 0.20 baht/kg.

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