According to Xinhua News Agency on March 1, an unauthorized oil tanker was hit while attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced on the evening of February 28 that all ships are prohibited from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Real-time data from the international oil tanker traffic monitoring system shows that the sailing speed of oil tankers in the waters around the Strait of Hormuz has generally dropped to zero, with a large number of ships stopping navigation to avoid risks.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It is a vital route for crude oil exports from oil-producing countries in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. The oil transported through this strait accounts for approximately one-fifth of the global total oil transportation volume.

Several shipping researchers told reporters that the current rapidly deteriorating situation in the Middle East will push shipping prices to rise further, among which oil shipping prices are the most noteworthy.

Before the dramatic changes in the situation in the Middle East, the freight rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) had already risen rapidly. The daily rental for the Middle East to China route exceeded 170,000 US dollars, a significant increase compared to the beginning of the year. As of February 26, the Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) for the VLCC TD3C route in the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was reported at 209,000 US dollars per day, reaching a new high since April 2020.

Escalating geopolitical conflicts will further push up VLCC freight rates. Based on historical experience, the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be truly closed for a long time, but in the short term, various ships will probably pass through cautiously, and the freight rates for relevant routes will remain strong.

A person from a domestic tanker shipping company told reporters that the typical characteristics of the oil shipping industry are highly concentrated customers and non-standardized products, which directly result in a single shipowner often being a recipient rather than a setter of market freight rates. The supply-demand gap determines the direction, and the capacity utilization rate determines the price elasticity.

Looking back at history, it can be seen that VLCC-TCE (Very Large Crude Carrier equivalent time charter rate) has reached a level of approximately $250,000 per day twice, with the main reason being limited effective shipping capacity. The release of VLCC freight rate elasticity due to tight effective supply is traceable. Currently, the supply of oil tankers is once again in such a situation.

In addition to the situation in the Middle East, the United States' crackdown on Venezuela and its takeover of Venezuela's crude oil trade at the beginning of this year, which has accelerated the elimination of the "shadow fleet", has already significantly pushed up VLCC freight rates to a certain extent.

Recently, South Korea's Sinokor Merchant Marine has become an "industry disruptor" by acquiring VLCC shipping capacity through purchases and leases in the market. Sinokor has increased its controlled shipping capacity from 26 vessels to 118, accounting for 13.0% of the global share. If the "shadow fleet" that cannot operate in the compliant market is further excluded, its share reaches 16.1%. Sinokor also intends to control the deployment of shipping capacity by delaying cargo receipt, which exacerbates the supply shortage.

A senior transportation researcher told reporters that in terms of rhythm, seasonality, VLCC delivery pace and tanker turnover frequency are the core factors, and the second quarter may be a key window to observe how Sinokor's strategy of "suspending sailings to support prices" will change.

China Merchants Energy Shipping, a major domestic oil transportation enterprise, stated in its investor relations activity record that the global key non-compliant oil transportation market is expected to further transform into a compliant market, which will affect the global crude oil transportation flow. In 2026, the newly added VLCC capacity is expected to be unable to make up for the efficiency decline of old ships and the withdrawal of ships subject to Western restrictions from the compliant market. The tight supply and demand pattern in the compliant market is expected to continue, and the freight rate center is expected to be higher than that in 2025.

As for other maritime sub-sectors, the latest shipping report from CITIC Futures mentions: In terms of container shipping, the container shipping volume in the Middle East accounts for about 5% of the global total; the inside of the Strait of Hormuz accounts for 3% of the global container throughput, with an average ship size of about 6,600 TEU (20-foot equivalent units). In the short term, the Middle East routes are the most directly affected, the impact on the Mediterranean routes is relatively weakened, and the transmission path of the direct impact on the European routes is relatively long. From the perspective of geopolitical premium support, all routes may stop falling and rise in the short term. The overall direct impact on the dry bulk shipping market may be limited. The supply of LNG (liquefied natural gas) and LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) ships is relatively loose, but the proportion of shipments from the Middle East is relatively high, so they may also be in a state of rising along with the trend. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the development of the situation and the operation of the Strait of Hormuz, and lock in shipping and transportation resources in advance.

The booming oil transportation market will drive an increase in oil tanker orders. Data from industry consulting agencies such as Clarksons shows that as of February 2026, the ratio of global VLCC orders on hand to existing capacity has risen to 18.77%. From the perspective of static delivery, the total number of deliveries in 2026 will be 30 to 40, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. In the view of the industry, the new capacity of only 3% is difficult to ease the current supply shortage.

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