As of February 27th, according to the price data from SunSirs, the mainstream average spot price of PET bottle chips in East China is 6,275 RMB/ton. Today's prices have clearly weakened and the decline has widened.

Cost side: Weakening support, downward shift in price center of gravity (core bearish)

Crude oil weakens, loosening cost foundation

Expected escalation of US Iran nuclear negotiations and easing of geopolitical risks; The increase in US import tariffs and the resumption of Venezuelan crude oil production have put short-term pressure on crude oil prices to fall.

The decline in crude oil directly suppressed PTA/MEG, and PTA/MEG weakened synchronously, with clear cost transmission and weakened support for bottle and chip costs.

Supply side: Moderate production, low inventory, but difficult to change weakness (neutral to bearish)

1. Moderate operating rate and stable supply

The operating rate of the bottle chip factory is about 66%, lower than the same period in previous years (75%+), and there is no significant oversupply.

The newly added production capacity is limited (with only a planned expansion of 700,000 tons in 2026), and the overall supply pressure is controllable.

2. Low inventory, but insufficient demand makes it difficult to stock up

The factory inventory is at a low level and there is no concentrated selling pressure.

But downstream purchasing power is insufficient, inventory turnover is slow, and factories still have the motivation to reduce prices and increase volume.

Demand side: Recovery falls short of expectations, sluggish buying sentiment

1. Slow resumption of downstream work and insufficient demand

The downstream resumption rate of soft drinks, sheet materials, edible oils, etc. is only 50% -60%, far lower than the same period in previous years.

Downstream, the main focus is on digesting pre holiday raw material inventory, with few new orders and cautious procurement, only replenishing inventory for small and urgent orders.

2. Low production and sales, with light trading volume

Today, the production and sales of bottle tablets are only about 30%, far below the breakeven line (70%+), and the factory is under great pressure to ship.

The price difference of the quotation has widened (50-100 RMB/ton), and transactions are mostly low-priced sources, putting pressure on mainstream quotations.

3. The expected peak season is still in place, but it is difficult to fulfill in the short term

The traditional peak season is in mid to late March, and demand is expected to gradually recover. However, there is currently no clear order signal, and the market is mainly wait-and-see.

SunSirs believes that the weakening of crude oil+ PTA/MEG on the cost side, slow resumption of downstream work on the demand side, and sluggish production and sales, coupled with futures leading the decline, have collectively led to weak and volatile bottle prices today; Low inventory on the supply side provides limited support, but cannot withstand the dual pressure of demand and cost. In the short term, it is expected that prices will weaken and fluctuate, making it difficult to have a significant rebound. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil, downstream resumption progress, and PTA/MEG prices.

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