Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs: This week (February 23-26), the market price of 1# tin ingot in East China rose for three consecutive days. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 378,420 RMB/ton, and the average market price as of February 26 was 416,620 RMB/ton, an increase of 10.56%.

Market Analysis

With the Spring Festival holiday quietly coming to an end, the performance of tin prices was particularly noteworthy, achieving a strong upward trend of three consecutive increases in just a few days after the holiday.

Due to the Spring Festival holiday in February, most major domestic smelting enterprises implemented planned shutdowns for maintenance. Based on this, tin ingot production is expected to decline to some extent that month. Although the market anticipates a slow recovery in Myanmar ore imports, Indonesia's tightening quota policy undoubtedly created a rigid constraint on tin ore supply.

Supply Side

Supply-side concerns include market expectations that Indonesia may introduce a policy banning the export of tin raw materials, coupled with supply risks from tin mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, further exacerbating market anxieties about tightening tin supply.

On the demand side:

Following the holiday, traders and downstream companies in industries such as solder, electronics, and photovoltaics will gradually resume work and production. Under these circumstances, the market's rigid demand for tin is expected to gradually recover. However, given that tin prices were still at historically high levels, this may continue to suppress downstream companies' willingness to stock up and their purchasing power, and the recovery in demand may be relatively slow.

In the spot market, the circulation of spot goods was relatively limited, and prices were generally showing a premium. Most downstream solder companies were still on holiday, with only a few having resumed operations. However, these weere temporarily in the final stages of equipment debugging and had not yet fully commenced actual production. Those companies that had resumed production were mostly depleting their pre-Spring Festival inventory and prioritizing orders received before the holiday, showing very little willingness to make new purchases.

Comprehensive Analysis

Tin prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels in the short term. The market needs to closely monitor the actual resumption of work by downstream enterprises after the holiday, the strength of restocking demand, and the specific implementation of Indonesia's export policies.

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