Since February, soybean meal futures prices have fallen before rebounding. During the Spring Festival holiday, the CBOT soybean main contract hit a three-month high. However, uncertainty over tariffs, expectations of a bumper South American harvest, and bearish data limited the upward momentum of U.S. soybeans. On February 25, the main soybean meal contract surged beyond expectations amid concerns over slower customs clearance.

During the holiday, CBOT soybeans fluctuated higher, primarily driven by robust January crush data. Expectations of Chinese purchases provided additional support, while logistics disruptions caused by Argentine maritime worker strikes heightened global supply chain concerns, pushing CBOT soybean prices upward. However, gains were capped by expectations of a bumper Brazilian soybean crop, anticipated U.S. planting expansion, and uncertainty surrounding potential tariff hikes by the Trump administration.

On the supply front, the February USDA supply-demand report maintained core U.S. soybean figures for the 2025/2026 marketing year unchanged while raising Brazil's production estimate, broadly aligning with market expectations. Recent signals from the USDA's Annual Outlook Forum indicate U.S. soybean planting area is projected to expand to 85 million acres in 2026, with production at 4.45 billion bushels and ending stocks at 355 million bushels, suggesting ample future supply.

On the demand side, January domestic U.S. soybean crush volume hit a record high for the period, with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) biodiesel policy expected to support crush demand. Pre-Chinese New Year sales data to China rebounded, and weekly shipments increased. However, changes in the Trump administration's tariff policy have reignited market concerns over U.S.-China soybean trade, potentially weakening U.S. soybean export potential.

In the short term, CBOT soybeans remain supported by domestic restocking demand. However, medium-term prospects face pressure from anticipated South American bumper crops and increased U.S. planting area, suggesting prices will likely consolidate at elevated levels.

South American soybean production expectations remain unchanged. Regarding South American soybean supply and demand, Brazil's bumper crop is virtually confirmed, while supply disruptions persist in Argentina. The February USDA supply and demand report raised Brazil's 2025/2026 production forecast to a record 180 million tons, while institutions like StoneX and Celeres have revised their estimates for Brazilian soybean output above 181 million tons. Brazil's soybean harvest and exports are now peaking, with Mato Grosso state nearing two-thirds completion. Analysts project February soybean exports to China will exceed 11.4 million tons, though persistent heavy rains have increased mold rates in some regions.

In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintained its soybean production forecast at 48.5 million tons. While rainfall improved moisture conditions and crop ratings in some areas, lingering effects from La Niña weather patterns still caused a slight decline in yields. Logistics-wise, maritime worker strikes in mid-to-late February paralyzed key ports like Rosario, disrupting soybean shipments and temporarily heightening global supply concerns. Although port operations gradually resumed, the disruption significantly impacted monthly export data, indirectly supporting international soybean prices.

Domestic soybean meal supply experienced a temporary adjustment. Domestic soybean imports arriving in February 2026 showed a slight decline, though arrivals in preceding months remained at elevated levels. The overall supply of soybean meal remains ample, with port inventories staying high. Oil mills maintained high crushing volumes before the holiday, and post-holiday operating rates rebounded rapidly, leading to a sustained increase in soybean meal supply. On the demand side, profits in the downstream livestock industry are under pressure, weakening feed companies' purchasing intentions. Currently, U.S. soybean prices lack competitiveness, and China has fulfilled its initial procurement commitments for U.S. soybeans. Brazilian soybean arrivals are expected to increase in March.

In summary, soybean meal prices may remain volatile in the short term. Medium to long term, the peak arrival season for Brazilian soybeans approaches, oil mill crushing volumes continue to rise, and high inventory pressures persist without relief. With weak demand recovery, soybean meal prices are likely to trend downward.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on February 26, the SunSirs soybean meal benchmark price was 3188.00RMB/ton, an increase of 0.31% compared with the beginning of the month (3178.00 RMB/ton).

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