On the 20th, the US Supreme Court ruled that the 10% ‘reciprocal tariffs’ previously imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful and ordered their removal. However, the US government promptly countered on the 24th by imposing 15% provisional tariffs on global goods under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, while simultaneously launching a new Section 301 investigation. This shift in tariff policy, while not directly targeting specific product categories or nations, will compound existing Section 301 tariffs on chemical products alongside anti-dumping and countervailing duties. This convergence will exert structural pressure on China's EVA industry chain import-export dynamics.
Regarding EVA raw material trade, the volume of virgin EVA imports and exports between China and the United States is minimal. The United States is neither a core source of EVA imports for China nor a primary destination for Chinese EVA raw material exports. Consequently, the provisional tariffs pose negligible direct impact on EVA raw material trade flows. However, China is a major exporter of downstream EVA products, with exports to the US exhibiting significantly higher dependency than raw material trade. Under the combined tariff pressure, traditional export categories such as EVA shoe materials and packaging films will bear the initial brunt.
From the perspective of downstream product exports, if additional temporary tariffs are imposed on top of existing tax burdens, the export costs of light industrial products like EVA shoe materials and packaging films will rise markedly, significantly squeezing corporate profit margins. Currently, the overall gross profit margin for Chinese footwear exporters ranges between 5% and 15%. The new tariffs alone could erode the normal profit margins of most enterprises. Compounded by the weaker bargaining power of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which struggle to pass on costs effectively to overseas clients, small and medium-sized footwear material and product enterprises face risks of shrinking orders, profit pressures, or even losses. Customs data indicates that, as shown in the chart above, Chinese footwear material exports to the US market accounted for approximately 3.25% of total Chinese footwear material exports in 2025. The global footwear supply landscape has already shifted, with Vietnam now surpassing China as the US's largest footwear supplier. This tariff escalation will further erode the price competitiveness of Chinese products, accelerating the transfer of overseas orders to low-cost Southeast Asian regions such as Vietnam and Cambodia.
Downstream applications in the photovoltaic (PV) module sector will also experience some impact. Currently, China's direct PV module exports to the US market constitute less than 1% of total exports, representing a negligible volume. Consequently, the newly imposed temporary tariffs will have virtually no discernible effect on the scale of China's direct PV module exports. However, vigilance is warranted as China's PV module sales to the US currently rely heavily on the Southeast Asian transshipment model. The United States is currently conducting ongoing anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations into photovoltaic products from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Combined with these 150-day provisional tariffs, this will directly increase the overall costs of the Southeast Asian transshipment chain. This is expected to lead to a year-on-year decline in China's exports of core photovoltaic components such as cells and wafers to Southeast Asia, thereby indirectly affecting overall demand across the photovoltaic supply chain.
As a core upstream material for photovoltaic laminates and footwear products, EVA will gradually experience upstream pressure as downstream exports and transshipment chains face disruptions. Although short-term demand is being driven by a rush to export, detailed analysis can be found in ‘Photovoltaic Exports Bid Farewell to Tax Rebate Benefits, EVA and POE Market Dynamics Shift’. Coupled with structural shortages on the supply side, EVA market prices remain somewhat supported. However, in the medium to long term, US tariff policies will continue to suppress order demand from China's small and medium-sized shoe manufacturers. Through supply chain transmission effects, this will further dampen demand expectations and price trends for general-purpose EVA.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on February 26, SunSirs' EVA benchmark price stood at CNY10,150.00 per ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
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