On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe, the world's fourth-largest lithium producer, suddenly announced an immediate and complete suspension of exports of lithium ore and lithium concentrate, without setting a clear end date. The only condition for resuming exports was that domestic mining companies complete localized processing upgrades. This sudden policy disrupted the existing rhythm of the global lithium supply chain. As China's second-largest importer of lithium ore, the lithium carbonate market was the first to be impacted. According to data from SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, lithium carbonate prices surged the following day, with the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 172,000 RMB/ton, a 6.17% increase from the previous day.

Zimbabwe, a core lithium-producing region in Africa, is the continent's largest lithium exporter. In 2025, its lithium concentrate production was equivalent to 150,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), accounting for 12% of global lithium supply. More than 90% of its exports went to China, making Zimbabwe China's second-largest source of lithium concentrate imports, after Australia. In 2025, China imported a total of 7.751 million tons of lithium concentrate, of which 1.204 million tons came from Zimbabwe, accounting for 15.5%.

Major importing countries and import volumes of spodumene ore in 2025

The impact of export bans on lithium carbonate prices in different periods

Short term: Sentiment-driven + supply contraction, price surges in bursts

The short-term impact of this ban stems primarily from the combined effects of unexpectedly strong sentiment and immediate supply contraction, coupled with limited domestic inventory buffers, which will directly drive up lithium carbonate prices. From the supply side, the ban covers goods already shipped and en route, completely disrupting spot orders from traders. Small and medium-sized lithium salt plants in China that rely on traders for procurement will face raw material shortages and be forced to reduce production.

The catalytic effect of sentiment is even more significant. The market originally expected Zimbabwe to implement the ban as planned in 2027, or at least with a buffer period if the pace is accelerated. However, the immediate "one-size-fits-all" policy completely reverses the market's expectations of ample lithium supply, triggering hoarding and scrambling in both the futures and spot markets.

Based on current market trends, spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate are expected to rise in the short term, but the extreme price surge seen in 2022 is unlikely - after all, the underlying overcapacity in low-to-mid-range lithium carbonate in China remains unchanged, and the core supply of leading companies has not been impacted.

Medium term: Gaps are gradually offset, and prices return to fundamentals

As market sentiment cools and supply-side hedging factors gradually materialize, the actual impact of Zimbabwe's export ban will weaken significantly, and lithium carbonate prices will gradually return to supply and demand fundamentals, exhibiting a trend of "rising and falling back, and fluctuating within a range."

Other supply sources are quickly filling the gap. Australia, China's largest source of lithium concentrate imports, is expected to add 200,000 tons of lithium concentrate capacity (LCE) in 2026, completely filling the supply gap from Zimbabwean traders. Meanwhile, in December 2025, China imported 189,000 tons of lithium concentrate from Nigeria and South Africa, accounting for 20% of total imports that month, which can quickly replace spot orders from Zimbabwe. Furthermore, domestic lithium extraction capacity from salt lakes and lepidolite continues to ramp up, with over 150,000 tons of new capacity expected to be released in 2026, further hedging against fluctuations in imported raw materials.

After market sentiment subsides, lithium carbonate prices will gradually decline, generally exhibiting a range-bound trading pattern, and a sustained one-sided upward trend is unlikely.

Long term: Supply chain restructuring and accelerated industry concentration

Zimbabwe's export ban is not a policy choice made by a single country, but a microcosm of the entire African continent's efforts to promote the localization and value-added processing of mineral resources. For a long time, most African countries have remained at the low end of the industrial chain of "mining and exporting primary raw materials," resulting in a serious loss of added value from strategic resources such as lithium and cobalt. Zimbabwe's move to accelerate its policy is essentially a struggle for control of the lithium industry chain, transforming itself from a "raw material supplier" to a "processing producer." This trend will reshape the global lithium supply chain in the long term.

According to analysts at SunSirs, this event will strengthen the already bullish trend in the lithium carbonate market in the short term. Driven by sentiment, the market has room to rise further, but the specifics still depend on changes in supply and demand.

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