Since the start of 2026, the international market has seen crude oil prices exhibit an “overall upward trend with minor corrections” driven by three core factors: escalating geopolitical risks, tightening supply, and resilient demand growth. Brent crude has stabilized near $70 per barrel, while WTI fluctuated around $66 per barrel, accumulating nearly a 6% gain during the Spring Festival holiday period. Consequently, China's retail fuel prices saw their first post-holiday increase. However, crude oil futures closed lower for two consecutive days after the holiday, with weak fundamental support. Wholesale market conditions predominantly weakened, pushing the domestic wholesale-retail spread to new highs. The gasoline spread reached its highest level since April 2025, while the diesel spread hit its peak since May 2024.
Following this retail price hike, this year's refined oil adjustments have formed a pattern of “three increases and one suspension” (referring to three price hikes and one missed adjustment window within a certain period). Data shows the cumulative increases for gasoline and diesel were 465 RMB/ton and 450 RMB/ton, respectively. In the wholesale market, fundamentals remain relatively relaxed with limited upward momentum. Driven by divergent demand factors, gasoline prices saw a modest increase while diesel prices faced downward pressure. According to Jinlianchuang monitoring data, as of February 25, the average domestic wholesale price for 92# gasoline stood at ¥7,841 per ton, up ¥113 per ton from the beginning of the year. The average wholesale price for 0# diesel was ¥6,436 per ton, down ¥215 per ton from the start of the year.
This year has seen a pronounced divergence in wholesale trends for gasoline and diesel. Gasoline prices have fluctuated upward, while diesel prices have primarily declined, resulting in a significant widening of the wholesale-retail spread for diesel. Analysis indicates that gasoline demand remained reasonably robust, driven by the Spring Festival holiday, coupled with relatively strong crude oil prices, supporting gasoline wholesale prices. However, the persistent impact of new energy vehicles continues to squeeze gasoline consumption at the terminal level, limiting upward momentum for gasoline prices. In the diesel market, the onset of winter has brought outdoor construction and infrastructure projects—key diesel demand drivers—into their traditional off-season. Fundamental support continues to weaken, and pre-holiday terminal stockpiling intentions remain low, leading to a predominantly downward trend in wholesale diesel prices.
Looking ahead, geopolitical factors are exerting greater influence on the oil market than economic fundamentals, particularly as the outcome of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks will directly guide oil price movements. International crude prices are likely to remain volatile in the near term under geopolitical pressures. Consequently, the probability of another upward price adjustment remains high, with cautious optimism emerging from market signals. At the wholesale level, gasoline consumption has declined significantly following the spring holiday, creating substantial downward pressure on gasoline prices in the short term. The wholesale-retail spread for gasoline may continue to widen. Diesel demand recovery remained sluggish before the Lantern Festival holiday, indicating insufficient demand support. However, with prices currently at low levels, cost support is strengthening. Diesel price declines are expected to be limited, and the wholesale-retail spread is likely to fluctuate within a narrow range in the near term.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on February 26, the benchmark price of SunSirs gasoline was 7314.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.25% compared with the beginning of the month (7296.00 RMB/ton).
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