At the February 25 morning session open, the main soda ash futures contract edged higher, while holiday inventories continued their upward trend. Both ammonia-based and combined-process soda ash plants operated at slight losses amid sustained high supply levels. Downstream consumers primarily drew down pre-holiday stockpiles amid strong wait-and-see sentiment. Float glass production capacity dipped slightly before the holiday, reducing soda ash consumption, while photovoltaic capacity fluctuated narrowly. Long-term supply-demand imbalance pressures persist. Adopt a short-selling strategy during rebounds, exiting positions near cost levels to await further developments.

Spot soda ash markets remained stable, with most manufacturers maintaining pre-holiday pricing. Trader quotes fluctuated with market sentiment; yesterday's delivered price for heavy soda ash in Shahe reached 1,154 RMB/ton, up 54 RMB/ton from the last pre-holiday trading day. Fundamentally, soda ash operations remained relatively stable during the holiday period, with minor capacity adjustments at individual plants in Henan and Jiangsu. Yesterday's industry operating rate stood at 84.89%, down 0.16 percentage points from the last pre-holiday working day.

Downstream demand for soda ash remained lackluster. On one hand, daily float glass melting volumes continued to decline compared to pre-holiday levels. On the other hand, mid-to-downstream players primarily focused on depleting raw material inventories post-holiday, with limited willingness for new purchases. Speculative demand for soda ash also appeared weak. With both supply and demand contracting, and soda ash plants still facing inventory buildup expectations due to the holiday, the fundamental outlook remains weak.

The macroeconomic environment and commodity market trends may exhibit linkage effects. Coupled with expectations surrounding key domestic meetings in early March, the soda ash futures market may enter a phase where weak fundamentals and external factors vie for influence, with futures prices continuing their wide-range oscillation trend. Once the market has priced in external factors, the supply-demand imbalance in soda ash may continue to suppress medium-to-long-term futures performance. Monitor macroeconomic and policy developments, soda ash production levels, downstream capacity changes, and procurement intensity.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices,  on February 26, the benchmark price of SunSirs heavy soda ash was RMB 1202.86/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.

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Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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