The coking coal market exhibited weak supply and demand dynamics before the Spring Festival. As the holiday approached, coal mines in major producing regions gradually entered holiday shutdown mode. On the demand side, downstream coking and steel enterprises had completed pre-holiday inventory replenishment, with steel mills maintaining low daily pig iron output and limited rigid demand for raw materials. Market transactions slowed, and prices overall fluctuated within a narrow range.

The primary market tension post-holiday is expected to stem from a mismatch in recovery pace, with supply rebounding faster than demand. Historical patterns indicate coal mine operation rates typically rebound to over 80% within two weeks after the holiday. State-owned major mines, with shorter average holiday durations, resume normal production even sooner. Import clearance volumes from Mongolia are projected to remain elevated, supplementing domestic supply.

On the demand side, recovery may lag behind inventory depletion. Within the first month after the holiday, downstream coke and steel enterprises will likely focus on consuming pre-holiday stockpiles, with low willingness for proactive restocking. Steel consumption remains in its traditional off-season, while sectors like real estate show weakness, making it difficult to rapidly stimulate coking coal demand. Poor profitability at steel mills also curbs production enthusiasm.

Overall, coking coal prices face downward pressure post-holiday. Supply recovery may significantly outpace demand, tightening market dynamics and potentially leading to inventory buildup that weighs on prices. However, supportive factors exist: premium coking coal resources may demonstrate stronger price resilience due to relative scarcity. Additionally, policy interventions (e.g., safety inspections) warrant attention for their potential impact on supply rhythms.

Overall, it is highly probable that the coking coal market will face pressure post-Spring Festival due to supply-demand mismatch. The specific market trajectory will primarily depend on the actual pace of mine resumption, the strength of downstream steel demand recovery, and the actual arrival of imported coal shipments. Close monitoring of these key variables is recommended.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on February 25, the SunSirs benchmark price for coking coal was RMB 1,461.25 per ton, a decrease of 1.02% compared to the beginning of the month (RMB 1,476.25 per ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.