Macroeconomics

1. [MLF] The People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion RMB of MLF operations on February 25th. Given that 300 billion RMB of MLF matures this month, this means that the February MLF rollover will be 300 billion RMB more, marking the 12th consecutive month of increased rollovers. The increase is smaller than the 700 billion RMB in the previous month.

2. [Export Controls] The Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement on February 24th, deciding to add 20 Japanese entities to the export control list and another 20 Japanese entities to the watch list.

3. [Federal Reserve] Federal Reserve's Goolsby stated that the 3% inflation rate is not good enough and has not reached the established target. He emphasized that further interest rate cuts require progress in inflation.

4. [Bank of England] Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that as inflation is returning to the 2% target level on track, an interest rate cut is expected soon.

Agricultural Products

1. [Cereals] The International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its 2025/26 global cereal (wheat and coarse grains) production forecast by 1 million tons in its February report, primarily reflecting a lowered barley production forecast. 1. The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts global cereal production for 2025/26 at 2.46 billion tons in its February report, lower than the 2.461 billion tons forecast in its January 16 report, but still higher than the 2.326 billion tons of the previous year.

2. [Soybeans] The IGC's February report forecasts global soybean production for 2025/26 at 428 million tons, higher than the previous month's forecast of 427 million tons, but slightly lower than the 429 million tons of the previous year; ending stocks are revised upward by 2 million tons to 79 million tons, lower than the 82 million tons of the previous year.

3. [Soybeans] The USDA's weekly export inspection report shows that last week, U.S. soybean exports to China (mainland) decreased by 50% compared to the previous week and by 29% compared to the same period last year. In the week ending February 19, 2026, the U.S. shipped 344,885 tons of soybeans to China (mainland), compared to 684,069 tons the previous week. U.S. soybean export inspections to China accounted for 51.5% of the total for the week, compared to 56.9% the previous week and 68.8% two weeks ago.

4. [Soybeans] The USDA export inspection report shows that U.S. soybean export inspections decreased by 45% week-on-week and by 24% year-on-year. For the week ending February 19, 2026, U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 669,865 tons, compared to a revised 1,215,299 tons the previous week and 879,226 tons in the same period last year.

5. [Soybeans] According to CONAB, the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's national commodity supply company, as of the week ending February 21, the Brazilian soybean harvest was at 32.3%, compared to 24.7% the previous week, 36.4% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 36.6%.

6. [Corn] The USDA weekly export inspection report shows that U.S. corn export inspections increased by 33% week-on-week and by 72% year-on-year. As of the week ending February 19, 2026, U.S. corn export inspections totaled 2,005,050 tons, compared to a revised 1,504,851 tons the previous week and 1,166,368 tons at the same time last year.

7. [Corn] CONAB's latest crop progress report shows that as of February 21, Brazil's 2025/26 first-crop corn planting rate was 99.7%, compared to 98.9% the previous week and 99.6% at the same time last year. Harvest progress was 20.5%, compared to 14.9% the previous week and 20.9% at the same time last year. Emergence rate was 0.9%, germination rate was 12.2%, flowering rate was 9.5%, grain filling rate was 33.2%, maturity rate was 23.7%, and harvest rate was 20.5%.

8. [Corn] According to the latest data from Brazil's Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), Brazil shipped a total of 1.3482 million tons of corn in the first three weeks of February, compared to 1.4195 million tons for the entire month of February last year. The average daily shipment was 103,700 tons, a 46.12% increase from 71,000 tons in February last year.

9. [Sugar] According to the latest data from Brazil's Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), Brazil shipped a total of 1.8006 million tons of sugar in the first three weeks of February, compared to 1.8251 million tons for the entire month of February last year. The average daily shipment was 138,500 tons, a 51.78% increase from 91,300 tons in February last year.

10. [Sugar] According to data from the National Cooperative Sugar Mills Association of India, as of February 14, India's sugar production had reached 22.53 million tons, higher than the 19.78 million tons produced in the same period of the previous year (2024/25 season).

11. [Soybean Oil] Data released by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries shows that as of February 1, 2026, the soybean oil inventory of Argentine factories was 180,300 tons.

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