The rare earth market saw a strong start to January 2026, with prices continuing their upward trend driven by both policy adjustments and pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling by downstream enterprises. Market transactions repeatedly reached new highs. Praseodymium and neodymium products led the price increases, followed by cerium oxide and cerium carbonate. Dysprosium and terbium prices exhibited an inverted "V"-shaped independent trend. Smaller products such as holmium, erbium, and gadolinium saw significant price increases due to a surge in export orders. Overall, market prices rebounded across the board. The overall market saw a strong upward trend in January, with 12 varieties, including praseodymium oxide, neodymium metal, cerium oxide, lanthanum cerium carbonate, erbium oxide, holmium oxide, gadolinium oxide, and yttrium oxide, experiencing significant price increases. According to the Rare Earth Exchange's January quotation data, out of 21 trading days in January, 63.49% of the 22 quoted varieties saw price increases, while 27.37% saw price decreases, indicating a clear upward trend.
I. Market Overview
The overall market saw a strong upward trend in January, with 12 commodities, including praseodymium oxide, praseodymium metal, cerium oxide, lanthanum cerium carbonate, erbium oxide, holmium oxide, gadolinium oxide, and yttrium oxide, experiencing significant price increases. According to the Rare Earth Exchange's January pricing data, out of 22 priced commodities across 21 trading days in January, 63.49% of the pricing data showed an increase, while 27.37% showed a decrease, indicating a clear upward trend.
1. Praseodymium-Neodymium Market
To analyze the praseodymium oxide market, we need to shift our focus back to late December 2025. At that time, upstream and downstream companies in the industry were entering the year-end financial settlement period, and the pace of procurement and sales slowed significantly. Some separation companies proactively reduced production due to environmental protection and maintenance factors. Although the spot supply of oxides was obviously tight, actual transactions were sluggish. The price increase trend began on December 22, with leading companies taking the lead in purchasing, driving other players to follow suit. In the last week of December, the transaction price quickly rose from 576,000 RMB/ton to 598,000 RMB/ton, laying the groundwork for a strong start in January 2026.
2. Dysprosium-terbium market
The dysprosium and terbium market was mainly dragged down by weak demand, with prices generally declining. Downstream magnetic material companies continued to reduce their use of dysprosium and terbium to control costs, resulting in overall sluggish demand and prices remaining weak and volatile. Although terbium oxide experienced a significant single-day increase of 200,000 RMB/ton on January 8th, prices subsequently fell back after major companies completed their purchases, highlighting the lack of market support. Inquiries for dysprosium oxide increased significantly in January, with relatively ample supply and a pronounced oversupply in the market. Without policy support or large orders to stimulate the market, dysprosium and terbium prices will continue to operate weakly.
3. Lanthanum and Cerium Market
Since December of last year, Northern Rare Earth has organized three rounds of auctions for lanthanum and cerium products, with the average transaction price rising in each round. During visits to lanthanum and cerium processing enterprises, it was also noted that spot supply is relatively tight, and some production and processing schedules have already been scheduled until early March.
4. Scrap Market
Scrap metal processing companies continue to raise their order prices due to significant increases in the prices of praseodymium and neodymium metals and praseodymium oxide products, leading to a substantial increase in overall procurement difficulty. Furthermore, with the Spring Festival approaching, some holders are choosing to proactively realize profits, but most of their inventory is tax-exclusive, while tax-inclusive scrap is being hoarded and stockpiled. In the near term, due to safety inspections and environmental protection factors, the scrap metal market may be the first sector to "take a break," allowing the market to cool down somewhat.
Overall, the factors that directly led to the price increase at the start of the new year include: First, the tight spot market situation in December continued into January without easing, and although separation plants have gradually resumed normal production, they cannot make up for the previous shortfall in the short term; second, Baogang Group announced the transaction price of rare earth concentrate in Bayan Obo, which has increased for six consecutive months; third, stockpiling before the Spring Festival is a rigid demand for magnetic material companies; and fourth, the capital market's continued attention to the rare earth sector has increased, with hot money flowing into the market and pushing up spot prices.
After visiting Baotou, Ningbo, Ganzhou, and other regions, it was found that new orders for downstream magnetic materials have generally decreased. Original pre-holiday procurement plans have been forced to postpone orders or reduce procurement scale due to the continuous rise in the price of raw material praseodymium and neodymium. Some small and medium-sized magnetic material factories have even had to close for the holidays early. In contrast, leading companies like Jinli Permanent Magnet mentioned in their Q3 2025 financial report that they had "sufficient orders on hand, with the overall schedule extended to Q2 2026"; and Zhongke Sanhuan mentioned in its investor relations activity record released on January 8th that "the company currently has about two months' worth of rare earth raw material inventory." This indicates that industry differentiation is further intensifying and is sending a signal: the structural stability of the raw material supply chain cannot be ignored, and relying solely on price competition is no longer sufficient to maintain long-term competitiveness.
II. Price Changes of Mainstream Rare Earth Products
Prices of mainstream rare earth products have risen, as shown in the figure.
After a brief period of price stability at the beginning of the month, praseodymium and neodymium prices rose rapidly, with two mini-peaks in price increases occurring during pre-holiday purchases in the middle and end of the month. As of January 30, the price of praseodymium oxide was 697,000 RMB/ton, up 14.4% from the beginning of the month; the price of praseodymium metal was 843,000 RMB/ton, up 14.3% from the beginning of the month.
At the beginning of the month, prices of dysprosium and terbium products rebounded rapidly as magnetic material manufacturers made pre-holiday purchases. However, demand weakened in the middle of the month, and prices fluctuated downwards. As of January 30, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.404 million RMB/ton, up 4.6% from the beginning of the month, with a highest price of 1.496 million RMB/ton; the price of terbium oxide was 6.232 million RMB/ton, up 4.3% from the beginning of the month, with a highest price of 6.383 million RMB/ton.
In addition, the prices of gadolinium oxide, holmium oxide, and erbium oxide also rebounded this month, but the increase was not significant.
III. Other Important Matters
1. On January 9th, Baogang Steel and Northern Rare Earth announced their rare earth concentrate prices for the first quarter of 2026. This marks the sixth consecutive price increase since the third quarter of 2024. The transaction price for rare earth concentrate in the first quarter of 2026, determined by Northern Rare Earth and Baogang Steel, is 26,834 RMB/ton (dry weight, REO=50%) excluding tax. The continued rise in raw material prices has directly increased the smelting and separation costs of light rare earths, providing strong support for the prices of praseodymium-neodymium products.
2. China continues to strengthen export controls
In accordance with the relevant provisions of the Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China and other laws and regulations, and in order to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, the control of dual-use items continues to be strengthened. In January, compliant companies successively completed customs declarations and shipped goods, providing stable support for the global civilian supply chain.
On January 6, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement regarding strengthening export controls on dual-use items to Japan. The announcement states the following: All dual-use items are prohibited from being exported to Japanese military users, for military purposes, or for any other end-user use that contributes to enhancing Japan's military strength. Any organization or individual from any country or region that violates the above provisions by transferring or providing relevant dual-use items originating from the People's Republic of China to organizations or individuals in Japan will be held legally liable. This announcement is effective from the date of its publication.
IV. Market Information
1. Recently, Northern Rare Earth was successfully selected as one of CCTV's "2025 New Productivity Annual Cases" for its groundbreaking innovation capabilities, becoming the only company in the rare earth industry to be selected. This signifies that authoritative media have given full recognition to Northern Rare Earth for its efforts in cultivating and developing new productivity in accordance with local conditions and promoting the high-quality development of the rare earth industry.
2. On January 28, Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. released its preliminary financial results, showing that in 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of RMB 46.469 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.37%; total profit of RMB 4.081 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.45%; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of RMB 2.311 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.08%.
3. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the list of pilot units for the industrialization of high-tech achievements under the National Key R&D Program in 2025. Two units under Baogang (Group) Corporation, Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Rare Earth Research Institute, were selected as pilot units for industrialization implementation.
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