During the Spring Festival holiday, overseas lithium futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Near-month contracts for lithium hydroxide on CME, SGX, LME, and ICE all saw slight increases, while near-month contracts for lithium carbonate on CME and ICE remained stable.

SMM data indicates lithium carbonate inventories saw a slight drawdown in the final week before the holiday, declining 2.4% month-on-month to approximately 102,900 metric tons. Upstream inventories decreased 7.82% to about 16,900 metric tons; midstream inventories held by traders and others fell 4.44% to roughly 41,500 metric tons; while downstream inventories rose 1.91% to about 44,500 metric tons. Additionally, Chilean lithium salt exports to China surged significantly in January, supplementing domestic supply. However, this period's exports included advance shipments due to the Spring Festival factor, necessitating continued monitoring of downstream restocking activity.

According to surveys, China's lithium carbonate production plan for February stands at 88,300 metric tons, down 8.2% month-on-month. As of the week ending February 12, spot port and warehouse inventories of lithium ore held by sampled traders totaled 225,000 metric tons, a decrease of 41,000 metric tons from the previous week. Looking ahead, buoyed by optimistic demand expectations, spot lithium ore supply may tighten slightly during the post-holiday restocking phase. Post-holiday lithium carbonate price volatility may intensify. On one hand, futures may trend upward driven by broader bullish sentiment in the metals sector. On the other hand, the resumption of production at domestic and international lithium projects—such as Jianxiawo, Ngungaju, and Grota do Cirilo—lags behind demand growth. Should more projects resume operations, this could generate consistent short-term bearish signals in the futures market. Market participants should monitor progress on these resource projects.

Overall, amid rising supply and demand, lithium prices may maintain a wide-range oscillation pattern. Market participants should monitor supply-side developments and inventory replenishment demand dynamics.

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