Since late January, the terminal market has entered its seasonal off-peak period, with downstream orders weakening and polyester producers ramping up production cuts. This has led to a temporary slowdown in PTA (purified terephthalic acid) price rebounds. However, from a longer-term perspective, China's PTA industry will face a “capacity gap” in 2026 as new projects enter the commissioning phase. Meanwhile, steady expansion of polyester capacity will drive incremental demand, shifting the supply-demand dynamics from loose to tight. This fundamental shift provides solid support for PTA's valuation recovery. Key focus areas include the progress of spring maintenance at production facilities and the pace of downstream resumption.
In mid-February, Sinochem Quanzhou's 800,000-ton facility resumed production smoothly, while Zhejiang Petrochemical's unit gradually restored operating rates, leading to a temporary increase in domestic PX supply. Concurrently, the downstream market entered holiday mode, with PTA plants undergoing maintenance and reducing output, weakening demand for PX procurement. Against this backdrop of easing supply-demand dynamics, PX's elevated valuation experienced some correction. Looking ahead, however, as spring maintenance gradually unfolds, PX supply is expected to tighten in the second quarter, providing strong support for prices. According to the latest maintenance schedule: Starting March 6, Jinling Petrochemical's 600,000-ton PX facility will undergo maintenance, expected to last until late April. By late March, Qingdao Lidong's 1 million-ton PX facility plans to halt operations for maintenance, projected to continue until early May. Additionally, Shenghong Petrochemical plans annual maintenance in Q2, though specific timing and scale remain to be confirmed.
Since mid-January, despite the successful restart and stable operation of Xin Fengming's No. 3 3-million-ton facility, multiple units—including Yisheng New Materials' No. 2 3.6-million-ton, Zhuhai BP's No. 2 1.25-million-ton, and Xin Fengming's No. 2 2.5-million-ton—have entered maintenance shutdowns, keeping overall industry supply subdued. As of February 13, China's PTA capacity utilization rate stood at just 74.22%, down 5.62 percentage points year-on-year and reaching a four-year low.
Following the Spring Festival, the low-supply pattern for PTA is expected to persist. However, it is worth noting that driven by expectations of long-term fundamental improvements, low valuations, and concentrated capital inflows, PTA prices achieved a recovery rebound before the holiday. Processing margins expanded smoothly to above 400 yuan/ton, significantly boosting industry profitability. This may lead to changes in companies' maintenance plans, with the possibility of some units delaying maintenance or shortening maintenance cycles, thereby introducing uncertainty to actual PTA supply in the later period.
In the short term, the end-user market remains in holiday mode. Pre-holiday operating rates in the texturing, weaving, and printing/dyeing sectors plummeted to 10-20%, with polyester industry capacity utilization simultaneously falling to around 76%. Reports indicate that multiple polyester filament facilities remained at reduced or halted operations through late February, keeping industry capacity utilization depressed.
However, with the conclusion of the Spring Festival holiday, domestic textile and apparel enterprises will resume operations en masse in early March. Terminal orders are expected to gradually recover, driving steady increases in polyester operating rates and stimulating PTA procurement driven by essential demand.
In 2026, China's PTA industry is projected to face tightening supply and demand dynamics. The supply side will undergo a critical shift, as no new domestic PTA facilities are currently scheduled for commissioning, marking an expansion “lull” for the industry. . Meanwhile, downstream polyester expansion continues, with planned annual capacity additions totaling 5.16 million tons. Polyester filament accounts for the bulk of this expansion, with 2.21 million tons scheduled for commissioning. Polyester bottle flakes and staple fiber each plan to add 1 million tons, while polyester chips aim for 950,000 tons (some projects may face delays). Despite uncertainties surrounding some facility launches, overall demand growth for PTA remains substantial. This mid-term supply-demand mismatch—characterized by stable supply and rising demand—will gradually push PTA prices upward.
In the short term, rising geopolitical risk premiums and firm crude oil prices provide cost support. However, constrained by sluggish terminal demand and low polyester operating rates, PTA's upside potential remains limited. Market focus will shift to spring maintenance schedules and downstream restart progress. With concentrated PX maintenance in Q2, constrained PTA supply, and March demand recovery driven by terminal resumption, PTA prices retain medium-term rebound momentum. However, vigilance is warranted against short-term volatility stemming from unexpected maintenance delays, sluggish demand recovery, and significant crude oil price fluctuations.
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