During the Spring Festival holiday, the national coke market maintained relatively stable overall operations, characterized by weak supply and demand and steady prices.
On the supply side, most coking plants maintained normal production rhythms with no significant fluctuations in operating rates. However, logistics and transportation faced some disruptions during the holiday, reducing cargo turnover efficiency. Some coking plants encountered constraints in shipping coke outbound, leading to accumulated inventory on-site. Demand remained relatively sluggish. Affected by the Spring Festival, downstream steel mills saw a decline in blast furnace operating rates, resulting in a noticeable decrease in actual coke consumption. Concurrently, the steel market entered its traditional off-season during the holiday period. End-user demand virtually stalled, while steel mills' inventories continued to climb, intensifying pressure on capital turnover. Mills adopted increasingly cautious procurement strategies, adhering to a needs-based purchasing principle with weak willingness to proactively replenish stocks, further dampening demand for coke.
Regarding prices, coke prices remained stable throughout the holiday period. On the cost side, while coking coal prices fluctuated, overall changes were modest, providing limited support to coke production costs. With both supply and demand weak, the market lacked clear price drivers, fostering a strong wait-and-see sentiment.
Looking ahead, as logistics fully resume post-holiday and enterprises gradually restart operations, the supply-demand dynamics in the coke market are expected to gradually improve. However, in the short term, a comprehensive recovery in end-demand remains unlikely. Moreover, most coking plants face inventory backlogs, requiring time to reduce on-site stockpiles. Consequently, the market is likely to maintain a weak operating trend.
In Shanxi, the coke market remained largely stable during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday period. Reduced logistics efficiency during the holiday period created some resistance to coke shipments, leading to inventory accumulation at most coking plants. However, as logistics gradually resumed, coking plants actively shipped their products, alleviating inventory pressure. From the supply side, coking plants in Shanxi generally maintained production cuts at pre-holiday levels, with some enterprises implementing minor production restrictions ranging from 20% to 50%. Production based on sales became the mainstream strategy. Regarding coking coal as the raw material, coking plants primarily relied on pre-holiday winter stockpiles during the Spring Festival shutdown, leading to a decline in raw material inventories. While downstream steel mills saw some profit recovery compared to earlier periods, the rebound in pig iron output from its low point has been limited, with a noticeable wait-and-see attitude prevailing in the market. Steel mills are mainly consuming their own inventories, showing moderate enthusiasm for restocking and maintaining a needs-based procurement rhythm for coke. In terms of pricing, metallurgical coke prices in the Shanxi market have remained stable recently. Since the first round of price increases took effect in late January, coke producers in the region have seen some profit recovery. However, most remain near the break-even point, limiting their willingness to adjust prices further. With no substantial improvement in end-demand and steel mills still facing profit pressures, coke prices are expected to remain stable in the near term. Current prices are: - Grade 1 dry quenched coke: ¥1,540-1,590/ton - Grade 1 wet quenched coke: ¥1,450/ton - Grade 1 dry quenched coke: ¥1,700-1,750/ton All prices are ex-factory, cash, inclusive of tax.
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