On February 23, JPMorgan Chase released a report predicting that the global aluminum market will face a supply deficit of 230,000 tons in 2026, with an average aluminum price of $3,200 per ton in the second quarter and continued support in the second half of the year; the copper market is also expected to be tight, with a deficit of 130,000 tons, and copper prices of $13,500 per ton in the second and third quarters, respectively.

Evaluation and Analysis

Aluminum

A JPMorgan report forecasts a global aluminum supply deficit of 230,000 tons in 2026, with average aluminum prices expected to reach $3,200/ton in the second quarter and remain supported in the second half of the year. The supply shortage will significantly push up spot prices, as strong demand coupled with insufficient supply will be a major positive factor for aluminum prices.

Copper

The report indicates a tight copper market supply, with an estimated deficit of 130,000 tons. Copper prices are projected to reach $13,500/ton in the second quarter and $13,000/ton in the third quarter. This tight supply expectation will support higher spot prices, while continued demand growth constitutes a significant positive factor.

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