At the 102nd USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum in February 2026, the core forecasts for cotton production in 2026/27 were as follows:

I. Global Cotton Production (2026/27)

Total Production: 25.26 million tons (approximately 118 million bales), a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year.

Consumption: 26.15 million tons, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year.

Exports: 9.58 million tons, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year.

II. U.S. Cotton Production (2026/27)

Total Production: 13.6 million bales (approximately 2.96 million tons), a decrease of 300,000 bales, or approximately 2.2%, compared to the 13.9 million bales projected for 2025/26.

Planted Area: 9.4 million acres, an increase of 1.3% year-on-year.

Harvested Area: 7.6 million acres, a decrease of 2% year-on-year (due to increased abandonment rate).

Yield: 856 pounds per acre, unchanged from 2025/26.

Main reasons for reduced yield: a slight increase in abandonment rate and a decrease in harvested area; a slight increase is expected in the Southwest region, while other regions are generally below or close to the previous season's yield.

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