Price trend

On February 3rd, the diethylene glycol market remained in a stalemate. Spot prices in East China closed at 3,280 RMB/ton, up 10 RMB/ton; prices in South China closed at 3,400 RMB/ton, remaining stable. Local imports continued to be delayed, leading to persistent tight supply, and there were many external unstable factors.

Fundamental analysis:

Supply: As of February 2nd, diethylene glycol port inventories in East China totaled 45,700 tons, an increase of 15,900 tons compared to the previous period. This week (February 3rd-9th), an estimated 4,300 tons of diethylene glycol are expected to arrive at Zhangjiagang port. While expected arrivals continue to decrease, port shipments are also expected to decrease due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday. Therefore, little change is expected in inventory levels at major ports in East China.

Demand side: Demand from end-users remained weak. This week, the average operating rate of domestic unsaturated resin factories was 36%, a decrease of 2.0% compared to last week. Traders faced pressure in selling their products. On February 2nd, the total shipment volume from the two warehouses in Zhangjiagang was 1,187 tons, a decrease of 315 tons compared to the previous day.

Costs: The situation between the US and Iran has shown temporary signs of easing, reducing potential supply risks.  Coupled with the recent strengthening of the US dollar, international oil prices have fallen, leading to decreased cost support.

Market outlook

Supply-side changes are minimal, and the downstream market is gradually entering the Spring Festival holiday period. Demand is weak, and easing geopolitical tensions have led to a significant drop in international oil prices. With the festive atmosphere intensifying and market participation low, the diethylene glycol market is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term. Some suppliers are reluctant to sell, and downstream buyers are primarily purchasing on an as-needed basis.

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