Price trend

According to data monitored by SunSirs, caustic soda prices showed a continuous downward trend in January. At the beginning of the month, the average price of caustic soda in Shandong province was 738 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 636 RMB/ton, a decrease of 13.82%, and a decrease of 23.1% compared to the same period last year.

On January 29th, the SunSirs chlor-alkali index was 724 points, a decrease of 1 point compared to the previous day, a decrease of 65.98% compared to the highest point of 2,128 points (October 24, 2021) within the cycle, and an increase of 1.69% compared to the lowest point of 712 points on January 5, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present.)

Market analysis

According to data from SunSirs, caustic soda prices showed a downward trend throughout January. In Shandong province, the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda was around 560-650 RMB/ton. In Jiangsu province, caustic soda prices remained stable, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda around 680-790 RMB/ton. In Inner Mongolia, caustic soda prices fluctuated, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda around 2,250-2,350 RMB/ton (on a 100% basis). This month, alumina purchasing prices continued to fall, with provincial alumina purchasing prices cumulatively decreasing by 25 RMB/ton to 590 RMB/ton. Caustic soda supply was ample, and production levels were high, but downstream demand for caustic soda was average, leading to a decline in caustic soda prices. As of the end of the month, supply remained sufficient, and downstream alumina buyers showed only moderate interest in entering the market, resulting in a stalemate. Purchases of caustic soda were mostly on a needs basis. It is expected that the alumina market will continue to fluctuate with a downward bias in the future.

Furthermore, data shows that in 2025, China's cumulative imports of caustic soda totaled 0.89 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 45.1%, of which flake caustic soda accounted for 0.85 million tons and liquid caustic soda accounted for 0.04 million tons. China's cumulative exports of caustic soda totaled 4.1011 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%; of which flake caustic soda accounted for 0.6715 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%, and liquid caustic soda accounted for 3.4296 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%.

Market outlook

According to analysts at SunSirs, caustic soda prices were weak in January, with domestic downstream buyers mostly purchasing on demand. Although upstream producers had adjusted their maintenance schedules, the decline in production was limited. Considering the supply and demand dynamics, it is expected that caustic soda prices will remain weak in the near future, depending on downstream market demand.

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