Recently, although soda ash futures have rebounded from their decline, showing slightly stronger performance than glass, the core issue of oversupply has not fundamentally altered. On the supply side, industry operating rates exceed 86%, with new capacity continuously coming online and expectations of further production resumption persisting, leaving enterprises with little incentive for voluntary output cuts. On the demand side, float glass cold repairs persist while daily melting volumes remain low. With deep-processing enterprises gradually shutting down before the Spring Festival, only minimal restocking for essential needs remains. Regarding inventory, although it narrowly declined to 1.5212 million tons, it still sits at historically high levels. Cost-wise, widespread industry losses make capacity rationalization an inevitable trend.

The pace of soda ash plant resumption continues, with weekly output rising slightly from elevated levels. According to data, domestic soda ash production reached 782,000 tons for the week ending January 22, up 6,700 tons (0.86%) week-on-week, maintaining a supply-loose pattern.

The core driver of oversupply remains the continuous release of new capacity. The 2.8 million-ton natural soda ash facility at Yuanxing Energy's Alashan Phase II project, scheduled for commissioning by the end of 2025, has now increased its operating rate to 80%. In Q1 2026, natural soda ash capacity from enterprises like Zhongyuan Chemical will gradually come online, pushing the industry's total capacity beyond 48 million tons. Annual output is projected to grow by approximately 12% year-on-year. Natural soda ash now accounts for 28% of new capacity additions, further depressing the industry's cost curve and intensifying supply pressure.

Regarding float glass, cold repairs for production lines are scheduled to occur in January 2026. As of January 22, the national daily float glass output stood at 150,700 tons, with an operating rate of 71.62%—both at their lowest levels since May 2020. Additionally, more production lines are planned for cold repairs before the Spring Festival. Compounded by construction site shutdowns and deep-processing enterprises rushing to complete projects, architectural glass demand for soda ash remains limited to immediate, essential purchases, with little willingness for bulk restocking.

In the photovoltaic glass sector, industry capacity utilization has dropped to 66.31%, with severe inventory buildup across enterprises. Inventory days generally range between 30 and 40 days. Domestic module production schedules weakened in January, with additional kiln shutdowns at photovoltaic glass plants implemented before the holiday. Production is gradually entering a shutdown phase, further contracting demand for heavy soda ash. Only leading enterprises maintain minimal essential purchases.

Data indicates that as of January 26, total domestic soda ash manufacturer inventories stood at 1.5212 million tons, down 23,000 tons (1.5%) from the previous week. Compared to the same period last year, current manufacturer inventories remain 12.3% higher, at a relatively elevated level for this time of year. Combined with social inventories still exceeding 400,000 tons, inventory pressure across the entire industry chain has not substantially eased.

The soda ash industry remains in a state of widespread losses, with profit margins diverging across different production processes but all remaining at low levels. As of January 22, the theoretical profit for ammonia-soda soda ash was -96.3 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous period; while the theoretical profit for the combined ammonia-soda process stood at -40 RMB/ton. As natural soda ash capacity continues to increase its market share, the industry's cost curve has been reshaped. High-cost ammonia-soda and combined ammonia-soda enterprises face mounting cash flow pressures, further intensifying expectations for capacity rationalization.

Overall, soda ash futures may fluctuate in the short term, supported by factors such as contract fulfillment and price-holding efforts by soda ash producers. However, lacking substantive underpinnings, the scope for a rebound remains limited. Medium-term supply surplus remains unresolved. Amid new capacity additions, elevated inventories, weak demand, and diminishing cost support, prices continue to face downward pressure. With the Spring Festival approaching, demand may enter a seasonal slowdown. Key focus areas going forward include coal price trends, the pace of glass demand recovery, and the actual rollout schedule of new capacity.

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