Price trend

In January 2026, the domestic phenol market rebounded from its weak start to the month, exhibiting a broad upward trend of "bottoming out and continuously rising," becoming a highlight of the chemical market at the beginning of the year. According to monitoring by SunSirs, the mainstream price in East China rose from 5,750 RMB/ton on January 1st to 6,250 RMB/ton on January 29th, with a cumulative increase of approximately 8.7% throughout the month. Significant changes in supply and demand, costs, and upstream and downstream industry linkages drove this price breakthrough.

Market Analysis

This month, the phenol market was mainly characterized by "inventory reduction - cost-driven increases - tight supply-demand balance," with an overall gradual strengthening trend. At the beginning of the month, inventory at Jiangyin Port exceeded 21,000 tons, with a concentration of imported goods arriving. Holders offered discounts, leading to a slight market downturn. After mid-month, rising prices of raw materials benzene and propylene increased costs, and leading companies such as Sinopec adjusted their prices, coupled with reduced plant operating rates, lower-than-expected imports, and downstream pre-holiday restocking, pushing prices up to 6,000-6,250 RMB/ton, shifting the supply-demand balance to a tight equilibrium. Factories continued to raise prices, and downstream bisphenol A prices also strengthened, leading to active trading and accelerated price increases.

Cost-side supported: Both benzene and propylene, the two main raw materials, were experiencing strong upward price movements, providing rigid support. Benzene prices rose from 8,800 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to over 9,500 RMB/ton at the end of the month, driven by high international crude oil prices, better-than-expected destocking of domestic styrene plants, and recovering demand. Propylene prices also increased due to temporary supply shortages caused by maintenance shutdowns at multiple PDH plants in Shandong province. To alleviate production cost pressures, phenol and acetone producers continuously raised their ex-factory prices for phenol, becoming the core driver of the market price increase.

Supply and demand dynamics reversed: supply contraction and demand recovery were providing dual support, shifting the supply-demand balance from loose to tight. On the supply side, major domestic phenol and acetone producers had scheduled maintenance ahead of the Spring Festival, with some facilities operating at reduced capacity, leading to a decrease in effective capacity. This, coupled with lower-than-expected import volumes, had resulted in a continuous contraction of overall market supply. On the demand side, downstream bisphenol A and phenolic resins were experiencing steady increases in demand driven by pre-holiday inventory replenishment in the epoxy resin sector. This, combined with temporary stockpiling by traders, further amplified demand and layed the foundation for price increases.

Falling port inventories and increased willingness to raise prices were solidifying the upward price trend. With continuous shipments, port inventories had fallen from 21,000 tons at the beginning of the month to below 15,000 tons, establishing a tight supply-demand balance. Suppliers' willingness to sell at lower prices had significantly decreased, and there was a strong sentiment to hold onto inventory and raise prices. Price adjustments by leading companies continued to boost market confidence, and the release of pre-holiday stocking demand from end-users, coupled with sustained demand-driven transactions, and increased stockpiling by traders, had created a virtuous cycle, contributing to a steady increase in prices.

As of January 29th, the quoted prices for phenol in major markets across China are as follows:

Market outlook

In the short term, the phenol market is expected to maintain high-level fluctuations from the end of January to before the Spring Festival. Tight supply and demand for benzene, high crude oil prices, and low inventory levels provide positive support, making a significant price drop unlikely. However, decreased downstream production, shrinking demand, and the expected arrival of imported goods and plant restarts after the holiday constitute potential pressure, and there is a risk of a price correction after the Spring Festival. Therefore, it is recommended that traders prioritize realizing profits and controlling inventory, while downstream companies should replenish stocks in small quantities as needed, avoiding blind stockpiling, and paying attention to potential price corrections after the holiday.

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