Price trend
In January 2026, the MIBK market experienced a phased recovery, ending the previous period of continuous decline and showing a steady upward trend in prices. According to data monitored by SunSirs, the mainstream negotiated price in East China at the beginning of the month was approximately 6,916 RMB/ton. As positive market factors gradually emerged, by the end of January, the price had successfully risen to the 7,200-7,400 RMB/ton range, representing a cumulative increase of 5.06% during the month. Market trading sentiment improved significantly compared to the sluggish state in the fourth quarter of last year. This recovery was the result of a combination of factors, including strong support from the cost side, orderly supply-side adjustments, stable demand, and improved market sentiment, all contributing to the upward trend this month.
Market analysis
Strong upward pressure on costs was providing core support. The continuous rise in the price of acetone, a key raw material in MIBK production, was a major contributing factor. The two are highly correlated, and fluctuations in acetone prices have a significant impact on MIBK costs. Since January, the acetone market in East China has been on an upward trend, with prices rising from 4,057 RMB/ton on January 1st to 4,800 RMB/ton on January 26th, an increase of 18.3%. Although there has been a slight decline in the past two days, the overall price remains high, providing solid cost support for MIBK.
Supply-side adjustments had moderately eased oversupply pressure. On the supply side, the industry has mitigated the previously persistent oversupply by adjusting plant operating rates and controlling order delivery schedules. Market monitoring in January showed that domestic MIBK companies were operating at a low level of less than 50% capacity. Some factories proactively reduced their operating rates, prioritizing the delivery of previous orders, and currently face no significant shipping pressure, maintaining moderate inventory levels overall. Price adjustments by leading companies further boosted market sentiment. On January 28th, Anhui Zhonghui New Materials' 50,000-ton/year MIBK plant was operating normally, and due to controllable inventory and steady demand, the company raised its price by 200 RMB/ton to 7,600 RMB/ton, becoming an important indicator of market price increases. Furthermore, although MIBK production capacity reached 280,000 tons in 2025, resulting in a high supply base, there was no new capacity added this month, and companies actively controlled their shipping pace, making it difficult to alleviate the tight supply situation in the short term, thus supporting price increases.
Demand-side essential needs provided underlying support, and market sentiment had improved. Although downstream demand has not experienced explosive growth, the steady follow-up trend provides fundamental support for the market. MIBK is mainly used in rubber antioxidants, coatings, and other fields. The demand for antioxidants is closely related to the automotive and tire industries. In 2024, my country's automobile production and sales increased by 2.9% and 3.7% year-on-year, respectively, driving the steady growth of antioxidant demand and thus creating a steady demand for MIBK. From the perspective of market transactions, downstream enterprises mostly adopt a strategy of following demand as needed, with actual transactions mainly consisting of small orders, presenting an overall "lukewarm" state. However, there has been no resistance to purchasing, effectively supporting the upstream price increases.
Market outlook
In the short term, the MIBK market is expected to continue its high-level fluctuations due to the combined effects of cost support and tight supply. If the price of the raw material acetone remains firm, it will continue to provide cost support for MIBK. Furthermore, with low inventory pressure on manufacturers, their willingness to maintain high prices remains strong. It is expected that the mainstream price in East China will fluctuate within the range of 7,200-7,400 RMB/ton.
In the long term, the market still faces pressure from supply and demand dynamics. New MIBK production facilities are expected to come online in 2026, potentially leading to increased supply pressure, while downstream demand is not expected to improve significantly and will likely remain driven by essential needs. At the same time, the price trend of the raw material acetone is uncertain; if increased acetone supply leads to a price decline, the cost support for MIBK will weaken. Overall, the MIBK market in 2026 is likely to show a "rise first, then fall" trend. The price increase in January is likely to be a temporary phenomenon, and future developments will depend on fluctuations in acetone prices, the release of new production capacity, and the pace of downstream demand recovery.
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