Macroeconomics

1. [Federal Reserve] Regarding the first Federal Reserve interest rate decision of 2026, scheduled to be released Wednesday afternoon US time (Thursday morning Beijing time), Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," wrote on Tuesday that Fed officials are not expected to cut interest rates, and the more difficult question is under what circumstances the Fed will resume cutting rates.

2. [US Consumer Confidence Index] The US consumer confidence index for January fell significantly from a revised 94.2 in December to 84.5, the lowest level since May 2014.

3. [India-EU Trade Agreement] India and the European Union have reached a trade agreement. Under the India-EU agreement, tariffs on more than 90% of EU export goods will be eliminated or reduced. Car tariffs will be gradually reduced to 10%, with an annual quota of 250,000 vehicles, six times the previous UK agreement. Tariffs of up to 44% on machinery, 22% on chemicals, and 11% on pharmaceuticals will be largely eliminated.

4. [Automotive] According to the latest data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), EU passenger car sales increased by 5.8% year-on-year to 963,319 units in December 2025. In 2025, EU passenger car sales increased slightly by 0.8% to approximately 10.6 million units.

Agricultural Products

1. [Sugar] On January 27th, two new sugar factories in Yunnan started crushing operations, and one more sugar factory is expected to start operations this week. According to incomplete statistics, as of now, 47 sugar factories in Yunnan have started crushing operations in the 2025/2026 crushing season, an increase of 2 compared to the previous year; the expected crushing capacity is 165,300 tons/day, an increase of 8,200 tons/day compared to the previous year.

2. [Rapeseed Oil] In December 2025, the national output of refined edible vegetable oil was 5.254 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%; from January to December, the national output of refined edible vegetable oil was 53.435 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%.

3. [Corn] The USDA's weekly export inspection report shows that US corn export inspections increased by 2% last week compared to the previous week and by 21% compared to the same period last year. For the week ending January 22, 2026, US corn export inspections totaled 1,510,167 tons, compared to a revised 1,485,874 tons the previous week and 1,250,775 tons in the same period last year.

4. [Grains] Oleg Knyazkov, Deputy Director of the Expert Center of the Russian Agricultural Bank, announced that Russia's grain (including legume crops) production in 2026 will reach at least 150 million tons. The expert stated that Russia's grain production in 2025 was 148 million tons. According to the benchmark forecast of the Russian Agricultural Bank, the planted area may increase to 83 million hectares in 2026, a 4% increase compared to 2025.

5. [Soybeans] AgRural stated on Monday that Brazil's soybean production for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 181 million tons, an increase of approximately 600,000 tons from the forecast of 180.4 million tons made on December 22. If this forecast materializes, it would represent a 5.54% increase compared to the 171.5 million tons produced in the 2024/25 season.

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