Macroeconomics

1. [Federal Reserve] Regarding the first Federal Reserve interest rate decision of 2026, scheduled to be released Wednesday afternoon US time (Thursday morning Beijing time), Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," wrote on Tuesday that Fed officials are not expected to cut interest rates, and the more difficult question is under what circumstances the Fed will resume cutting rates.

2. [US Consumer Confidence Index] The US consumer confidence index for January fell significantly from a revised 94.2 in December to 84.5, the lowest level since May 2014.

3. [India-EU Trade Agreement] India and the European Union have reached a trade agreement. Under the India-EU agreement, tariffs on more than 90% of EU export goods will be eliminated or reduced. Car tariffs will be gradually reduced to 10%, with an annual quota of 250,000 vehicles, six times the previous UK agreement. Tariffs of up to 44% on machinery, 22% on chemicals, and 11% on pharmaceuticals will be largely eliminated.

4. [Automotive] According to the latest data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), EU passenger car sales increased by 5.8% year-on-year to 963,319 units in December 2025. In 2025, EU passenger car sales increased slightly by 0.8% to approximately 10.6 million units.

Energy

1. [Crude Oil] On January 27, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the March contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $62.39 per barrel, an increase of $1.76 or 2.9%. The settlement price of the April contract for Brent crude oil futures was $66.59 per barrel, an increase of $1.82 or 3.0%.

2. [Crude Oil] Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased last week, while distillate fuel inventories increased. For the week ending January 23, US crude oil inventories fell by 247,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 415,000 barrels, and distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.01 million barrels. 3. [Coal] It is understood that Germany has announced plans to provide €720 million in new climate financing to support South Africa's transition away from coal. If this commitment is realized, Germany's total support for South Africa's energy transition will reach approximately €2.68 billion, making it one of South Africa's most important bilateral climate financing partners.

4. [Coal] According to the latest data from Thai Customs, coal (including lignite) imports in December 2025 totaled 958,400 tons, a decrease of 33.56% month-on-month and 23.68% year-on-year. Total coal (including lignite) imports from January to December 2025 amounted to 17.7423 million tons, a decrease of 3.43% year-on-year.

5. [LNG] Real-time liquefied natural gas (LNG) import data from the China Natural Gas Information Terminal (E-Gas system) shows that in the week of January 19-25, an estimated 19 LNG cargoes were imported through coastal LNG receiving terminals in China, totaling approximately 1.21 million tons, compared to 1.42 million tons in the previous week.

6. [Petroleum Coke] On January 27, Shandong Tianhong Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted petroleum coke at 2,210 RMB/ton, a decrease of 50 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. Sulfur content is around 3.9, with a 1.8 million tons/year delayed coking unit and a daily output of 1,000 tons of petroleum coke.

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