Recent data released by the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that China's crude steel output for the full year of 2025 is projected to reach approximately 961 million tons, marking a year-on-year decline of 4.4%. This signifies the first time since reaching its peak in 2020 that China's annual crude steel production has fallen below the 1 billion ton threshold. According to NBS data, China's crude steel output stood at 996 million tons in 2019, reaching a historic high of 1.053 billion tons in 2020. It then declined for two consecutive years, remained largely flat year-on-year in 2023, and is projected to decrease again over the next two years.

This downward trend in China's crude steel output stems from the combined effects of macroeconomic policy adjustments and shifting market demand.

Since the introduction of the “dual carbon” goals in 2020, steel enterprises—as major carbon emitters—have remained a key focus for capacity regulation. In March 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission confirmed that crude steel production controls would continue through 2025. In July, a representative from the China Iron and Steel Association stated that amid the imbalance between total supply and demand, self-disciplined production curbs were essential to stabilize prices. On the demand side, while the share of steel used in manufacturing has increased over the past two years, it remains insufficient to fill the gap created by the significant contraction in construction steel demand.

“Reduced-volume development” has become an inevitable trend for the steel industry. For enterprises, this means accelerating product upgrades to enhance differentiated competitiveness through high-end plate products, while simultaneously deepening green transformation efforts.

Recent CISA data shows that in mid-January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 19.79 million tons of crude steel, averaging 1.979 million tons per day—a 0.9% daily decrease from the previous period. Pig iron output reached 17.94 million tons, averaging 1.794 million tons per day, marking a 1.8% daily increase. and 18.77 million tons of steel products, averaging 1.877 million tons per day, a 3.0% increase from the previous period. Based on these figures, the estimated daily crude steel output nationwide for this period was 2.44 million tons, down 1.7% month-on-month; daily pig iron output was 2.16 million tons, up 0.6% month-on-month; and daily steel product output was 3.93 million tons, up 1.5% month-on-month.

Additionally, global crude steel production for the full year of 2025 reached 1.8494 billion tons. According to World Steel Association data, crude steel output in December 2025 across 70 countries and regions included in the association's statistics totaled 139.6 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. Global crude steel production for the full year of 2025 amounted to 1.8494 billion tons.

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