Spot PVC prices fluctuated downward, with active trading at lower levels during the session. Type 5 PVC produced via the calcium carbide method traded between 4,480-4,600 RMB/ton. The domestic PVC spot market fluctuated weakly, with fundamentals lacking positive support. Weekly supply remained high at 480,000 tons, while demand weakened as the holiday season approached. Short-term marginal high-cost producers saw market floor support strengthen due to rising calcium carbide prices. PVC spot prices maintained narrow fluctuations. In East China, spot cash ex-warehouse prices for calcium carbide-based Type 5 PVC ranged from 4,500 to 4,620 RMB/ton, while ethylene-based PVC traded at 4700-4900 RMB/ton.
From January 9 to 15, 2026, PVC producers' capacity utilization rate stood at 79.63%, down 0.04% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year. Calcium carbide-based production stood at 79.98%, up 0.26% week-on-week but down 1.79% year-on-year, while ethylene-based production was 78.79%, down 0.77% week-on-week and 3.59% year-on-year. Domestic operating rates are expected to continue declining. Asian February contract prices are projected to rise, and the cost-driven raw material calcium carbide remains stable. However, considering downstream enterprises beginning to close for holidays, the PVC market is expected to fluctuate temporarily. On the supply side, Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan remain under maintenance next week, with operating rates expected to decline slightly further.
On the demand side, domestic downstream operating rates continue to fall. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some small and medium-sized downstream enterprises have begun taking holidays. Coupled with recent PVC price increases, downstream resistance to high prices has dampened purchasing enthusiasm. Exports: Asian markets will announce February contract prices next week, with an expected increase of $40/ton. Exporters are adopting a wait-and-see approach for now, as overall demand remains subdued. Cost perspective: Ethylene (USD): Domestic demand for USD-denominated ethylene is limited, potentially pushing prices lower within the $710-730/ton range. For calcium carbide, supply-demand imbalances intensify amid fierce market competition. Recent logistics pressures and regional truck shortages exacerbate delivery inconsistencies. Next week's market will remain stable with consolidation, driven primarily by regional dynamics. Regarding capacity additions, multiple new ethylene-based plants will come online in 2025, accounting for 72% of new capacity. Specifically, multiple new units will start production in August-September 2025, including facilities at Xinpu Chemical, Shaanxi Jintai, Fujian Wanhua, Tianjin Bohua, and Qingdao Gulf. Combined with the permanent shutdown of Hubei Yihua's old unit, actual capacity will increase by 2.08 million tons in 2025, reaching a record high of 29.62 million tons, with capacity growth accelerating to 7.55%. In 2026, only Zhejiang Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000-ton-per-year facility will come online domestically. Some high-cost, energy-intensive, and environmentally unfriendly small-scale, outdated calcium carbide-based facilities may be phased out. Overseas PVC capacity additions in 2026 will be limited to a 350,000-ton/year project in the UAE. Certain European and American facilities also face elimination pressure, with Vynova Wilhelmshaven GmbH filing for bankruptcy in mid-December 2025—a facility with approximately 320,000 tons/year of PVC capacity. Global PVC capacity expansion has slowed significantly, with excess capacity pressures expected to ease markedly by 2026. Domestic social inventories continue to rise. As of the week ending January 15, PVC social inventories increased by 2.70% week-on-week to 1.1441 million tons, up 48.60% year-on-year. Elevated social inventories indicate substantial destocking pressure.
On January 9, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued the “Announcement on Adjusting Export Tax Rebate Policies for Photovoltaic and Other Products.” Among the products removed from the VAT export tax rebate list are: pure polyvinyl chloride in primary forms (excluding polyvinyl chloride paste resin), unplasticized polyvinyl chloride in primary forms, and plasticized polyvinyl chloride in primary forms. This policy takes effect on April 1, 2026. With a 13% export tax rebate rate for PVC, based on the current price of RMB4,500 per ton, the elimination of export rebates will increase PVC export costs by approximately RMB520 per ton. This cost increase weakens the price competitiveness of domestic PVC in the Asian market, which will undoubtedly accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity. However, with insufficient overseas capacity, domestic PVC exports still have room for growth. Recently, a “rush to export” phenomenon has emerged, with PVC export orders surging last week to reach a multi-year high.
Overall, although new capacity additions in 2026 are limited, the PVC oversupply situation remains unchanged. Short-term cost support and export rushes have driven the recent rebound, but the market now faces pressure from insufficient downstream demand and high inventories during the upcoming Spring Festival holiday. Additionally, the negative impact of reduced exports following the cancellation of export tax rebates looms. In the medium term, PVC is expected to remain in a weak, fluctuating state.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 22nd, the SunSirs PVC benchmark price was 4429.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.45% compared to the beginning of the month (4409.00 RMB/ton)..
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