Since the beginning of January 2026, the domestic melamine market has continued the stable trend observed at the end of last year, exhibiting the typical characteristics of "high prices and low volatility." According to price tracking data, from the end of December 2025 to January 21, 2026, the mainstream market price for industrial-grade (premium) melamine remained within a narrow range of 5,633-5,666 RMB/ton. In particular, after reaching 5,633 RMB/ton on January 3rd, the price has remained at this level for three consecutive weeks, demonstrating remarkable market stability.

The formation of this stable pattern is not driven by a single factor, but rather is the result of a balance between three factors: domestic costs and supply, overseas imports and exports, and domestic demand.

1. Cost side:

This month, the primary support for the market comes from the upstream and supply side of the industrial chain. The price of urea, a key raw material, remains high. As of January 22nd, SunSirs' benchmark price for urea was 1,750.00 RMB/ton, a 1.45% increase compared to the beginning of the month (1,725.00 RMB/ton). This provides strong cost support for melamine production, significantly squeezing the profit margins of manufacturers and thus strengthening their willingness to maintain high prices.

2. Supply side:

In January, many domestic manufacturers scheduled plant shutdowns for maintenance or reduced operating rates, leading to a month-on-month decrease in the overall industry operating rate and a marginal tightening of market spot supply. The combined effect of cost pressure and proactive supply reduction firmly supported market prices, limiting the potential for price declines.

3.Demand Side:

Current market demand remains stable. Downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings are generally adopting a just-in-time procurement strategy, with market transactions mainly consisting of small orders driven by immediate needs. Despite the approaching Chinese New Year, the anticipated large-scale pre-holiday stocking surge has not yet materialized, and a general wait-and-see attitude persists. This lukewarm demand, coupled with the tightening supply, is the main reason why prices have not risen rapidly and have instead entered a period of high-level consolidation.

4. Imports and Exports:

The import and export data for December 2025 provided a neutral to slightly positive external environment for the market in January.

In terms of exports: December's export volume reached 56,900 tons, a slight increase of 2.50% compared to the previous month, and the average export price of $703.09 per ton also remained stable. This indicates that overseas demand remains healthy, providing a stable external outlet for domestic production capacity and acting as a "stabilizer" to prevent market collapse due to insufficient domestic demand.

Regarding imports: In December, import volume was only 19.73 tons, having almost no substantial impact on domestic supply and demand. However, the average import price increased significantly by 27.69% month-on-month to US$5234.26/ton. This signal psychologically reinforced the domestic market's perception of high international costs, indirectly strengthening producers' confidence in maintaining high prices.

Looking ahead to the market around the Spring Festival, the current stable pattern is expected to continue, but whether this balance can be broken depends on four key variables. If parking facilities resume production intensively after the holiday, and the progress exceeds expectations, supply pressure will increase significantly; urea prices directly determine the strength of cost support, and if raw material prices ease from high levels, the bottom support for melamine will also weaken; it is also crucial to monitor whether downstream stocking and replenishment demand after the Spring Festival can be released as expected, and whether the demand is strong enough to absorb existing and new supply; exports are an important demand buffer, and the resilience of overseas demand in 2026 needs continuous observation. Whether it can continue to absorb domestic excess capacity is crucial for the long-term market balance.

In summary, the melamine market in January 2026 was dominated by strong internal factors (costs and supply), resulting in a temporary equilibrium influenced by stable external demand (exports) and yet-to-be-realized domestic demand. Market participants are closely monitoring pre-holiday inventory movements to identify clear signals for the direction of prices in the next phase.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.