Macroeconomics

1. [Fiscal Policy] A comprehensive package of fiscal and financial policies to stimulate domestic demand has been released. This includes the first-ever establishment of a 500 billion RMB special guarantee plan for private investment, guiding banks to provide an additional 500 billion RMB in loans to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) for private investment. For the first time, interest subsidies for SME loans will be implemented, covering 14 "key industrial chains and upstream and downstream industries," productive service industries, and related agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors. Policies such as interest subsidies for service industry businesses, personal consumption loans, and equipment upgrade loans will be optimized, and personal credit card installment payments will be included in the subsidy scope.

2. [US-EU Agreement on Hold] The European Parliament announced the freezing of the approval process for the trade agreement reached with the United States last July. This is seen as the EU's first response to Trump's latest pressure tactics. Trump had previously threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries until an agreement was reached on the US "purchase of Greenland."

Rubber and Plastics

1. [BR] On January 20th, the butadiene rubber market in East China showed a weak downward trend, with suppliers significantly lowering their prices by 150-300 RMB/ton. Currently, the mainstream prices for Daqing, Yangzi, and Qilu butadiene rubber are 11,750-12,200 RMB/ton; some private brands are quoted at around 11,700-11,800 RMB/ton; transactions are mainly for lower-priced goods.

2. [BR] In December 2025, China's butadiene rubber imports amounted to 29,123.02 tons, a 4.27% increase month-on-month; butadiene rubber exports in December amounted to 27,971.42 tons, a 3.74% increase month-on-month.

3. [NBR] In December 2025, China's nitrile rubber imports amounted to 5,862.985 tons, a 52.33% increase month-on-month.

4. [PVC] In December 2025, China's PVC imports were 24,600 tons, a 57.14% increase month-on-month and a 12.99% increase year-on-year. The average import price was US$665/ton.  Cumulative imports from January to December totaled 226,700 tons, a 2.58% increase year-on-year.

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