The domestic refined oil price adjustment window has opened at 24:00 on January 20th, and the retail price of refined oil is about to increase. In 2026, the retail price of refined oil will achieve one rise, zero fall, and one suspension. During this cycle, the crude oil market first fell and then rose, and the crude oil change rate turned from negative to positive. The retail price of refined oil in this round will see its first increase in 2026.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend first fell and then rose. As of the 19th, the US WTI crude oil futures market was closed, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March was $63.94 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, the crude oil price market first fell and then rose. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation eased, and the risk premium quickly dissipated. Geopolitical factors were the core driving force behind the reversal of oil price fluctuations. Market concerns about supply disruptions in Iran shifted from heating up to easing, and the previously accumulated safe haven buying orders were concentrated and withdrawn. In addition, the situation in Venezuela added to the bearish sentiment, resulting in a decline in the crude oil market trend. On the other hand, the US continued to increase sanctions on Iran, coupled with the impact of sanctions on Iran's oil export related industrial chain, the future supply of Iranian crude oil may further decline, forming supply side support. Although the market expects an increase in Venezuela's exports, the country's oil industry infrastructure is weak, and the export recovery process is slow. Positive news supports the rise in international oil prices, and overall, the trend of crude oil prices has risen this cycle. As of the 20th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was 1.80%, corresponding to an increase of 85 RMB/ton of gasoline and 85 RMB/ton of diesel in domestic oil prices, equivalent to 89# 0.06 RMB/liter., 92# 0.06 RMB/liter., 95 # 0.07 RMB/liter., and 0# 0.07 RMB/liter.

In terms of gasoline, the operation of Shandong refineries is relatively stable, with operating rates maintained. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries is around 53%. Recently, the main refineries in the country have seen an increase in load reduction, resulting in a slight decline in operating rates, which has led to low resource inventory levels in some units. Recently, residents' travel and other activities have been normal, but with the decrease in temperature and the expansion of rainy and snowy weather, the frequency of private car use has increased. The demand for gasoline in the domestic market is still guaranteed, but the continuous increase in the popularity of new energy vehicles has resulted in lower than expected demand performance, leading to a slight rise in the gasoline market.

In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has been normal, and the demand side is still dominated by rigid demand. The recent increase in low-temperature rain and snow weather in northern regions has hindered diesel infrastructure and logistics transportation. In addition, the use of diesel in agriculture has come to an end, and the demand for diesel has weakened compared to before. As a result, the diesel market has fluctuated at a low level.

Looking ahead, in the short term, international oil prices will maintain a volatile trend in the game of supply and demand and geopolitical fluctuations. Any fluctuation in the geopolitical situation may trigger a short-term surge in oil prices; However, the weak demand side, high inventory fundamentals, and the long-term trend of new energy substitution will continue to suppress oil prices, making it difficult to support the trend of rising oil prices, and the overall amplitude may further increase. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate is relatively stable, and the supply of refined oil is normal. In addition, the news is positive, and the impact of rainy and snowy weather is expanding. The expectation of diesel demand is suppressed, and the weak diesel market is maintained. There is still support for gasoline demand, and gasoline may slightly rise.

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