Price trend

According to the business data analysis system of SunSirs, the xylene market rose last week. From January 1st to January 15th, 2026, the price of xylene increased from 5,510 RMB/ton to 5,720 RMB/ton, a rise of 3.81%. Transactions during this period were mainly driven by essential demand. Initially, the market was strong due to strong support from the cost side. Later, with the correction in crude oil prices and cautious downstream buying, the market experienced a slight correction, showing signs of pressure at higher price levels.

Market analysis

Cost side:

According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, as of January 15th, the settlement price of the March contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $59.08/barrel, and the settlement price of the March contract for Brent crude oil futures was $63.76/barrel. During this period, international crude oil prices showed a wide range of fluctuations, characterized by "continuous increases followed by a sharp correction at the end of the month," resulting in varying levels of cost support for the toluene market. Initially, international crude oil futures experienced five consecutive increases, with WTI crude oil rising above $60/barrel and Brent crude oil also rising, both reaching their highest levels in nearly two months. This created a strong atmosphere in the commodity market, directly driving up the prices of toluene and upstream and downstream aromatic products. Domestic crude oil futures also strengthened, rising continuously from January 9th to January 13th, with the closing price on January 13th reaching 445.6 RMB/barrel, an increase of 29.4 RMB/barrel from the low point on January 8th, indicating significant cost support. However, on January 15th, international oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with geopolitical premiums quickly dissipating. Affected by factors such as the easing of US-Venezuela relations, a larger-than-expected increase in US crude oil inventories, and a decline in the OPEC+ production cut compliance rate, WTI crude oil fell by 3.31% in a single day, reaching $59.83/barrel; Brent crude oil fell by 3.49%, reaching $64.19/barrel, the largest single-day drop since November 2025. The sharp short-term correction in oil prices weakened the cost support for toluene, and coupled with increased market expectations of further oil price fluctuations, the upward momentum in the toluene market was suppressed, lacking sufficient impetus for continued growth.

Supply side:

During this period, domestic xylene supply was generally tight. Significant differences in supply and pricing across regions supported the market's upward trend in the early stages. Regionally, Shandong saw the most significant price increase. Early sales were weak, but downstream customers concentrated their purchases during the week, resulting in strong daily production and sales. Factories maintained low inventory levels, and coupled with the influence of crude oil and the East China market, negotiation prices rose. The price difference between Shandong and East China continued to narrow. The East China market followed the fluctuations of crude oil and related product futures, initially rising before adjusting downwards. Reduced cargo arrivals at regional ports led to tight spot supply, and holders had a strong willingness to maintain high prices. Later, a slight decline occurred following the correction in crude oil prices. Prices in South China initially rose before weakening. The lack of cargo arrivals and price adjustments by major refineries drove the market higher in the early stages, but later, weak demand led to a slight price correction, and trading activity was generally subdued. Price adjustments by major refineries such as Sinopec dominated the market rhythm, and relatively limited spot supply further strengthened the market's upward price sentiment.

Sinopec Xylene Price Summary: As of January 16, operations were normal, production facilities were stable, and sales were steady. Company prices remained unchanged from the previous day. As of January 15th, the price in East China was 5,800 RMB/ton, in North China 5,400-5,550 RMB/ton, in South China 5900 RMB/ton, and in Central China 5400-5600 RMB/ton.

Demand side:

According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, Sinopec Sales Company's PX price was uniformly set at 9,300 RMB/ton in East China, North China, and South China. Major producers such as Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical were operating stably, with smooth production and sales. As of January 15th, the closing price of the Asian PX market was US$980-982/ton FOB Korea and US$1,005-1,007/ton CFR China, representing increases of 2.17% and 2.33% respectively compared to January 1st. The upward trend in both domestic and international prices was significant.

Market outlook

On the supply side, domestic plant operating rates remained stable, with no new plant shutdowns reported. There was no significant expectation of a contraction in market supply, and supply and demand were generally stable. On the demand side, there was an expectation of weakening in the PX market, which reduced support for xylene prices. Gasoline consumption continued to slow, and there was little prospect of increased demand from end-users. On the cost side, easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of oversupply suggested a bearish outlook for crude oil futures, weakening cost support. Overall, the bearish outlook for crude oil, coupled with expectations of weaker downstream demand and insufficient overall demand, suggests that the domestic xylene market will be weaker next week, lacking upward momentum and offering limited market support.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.