Price trend

According to SunSirs' commodity analysis system, caustic soda prices showed a weak trend last week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 723 RMB/ton, and the average market price at the end of the week was 694 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.41%, and a year-on-year decrease of 26.72%.

On January 15th, SunSirs' chemical index was 780 points, an increase of 2 points compared to the previous day, a decrease of 44.29% compared to the highest point of 1,400 points (October 23, 2021) within the cycle, and an increase of 30.43% compared to the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

Market Analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, caustic soda prices showed a weak trend last week. In Shandong province, the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda was around 640-720 RMB/ton. In Jiangsu province, caustic soda prices remained stable, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda around 740-820 RMB/ton. In Inner Mongolia, caustic soda prices were consolidating, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda around 2,100-2,200 RMB/ton (on a 100% basis). Last week, the supply of caustic soda remained ample, and companies did not show significant inventory reduction. Downstream alumina producers showed moderate purchasing activity, and their inventories were relatively sufficient. The market remained in a stalemate, with buyers purchasing caustic soda mainly on a need-to-buy basis. It is expected that the alumina market will continue to fluctuate with a downward bias in the future.

Market Outlook:

According to analysts at SunSirs, caustic soda prices were weak last week. Domestic downstream buyers were mostly purchasing on an as-needed basis. There were no positive factors supporting the Shandong market next week, and demand had not substantially improved. Considering the supply and demand dynamics, it is expected that caustic soda prices will continue to maintain a weak consolidation in the near future, depending on downstream market demand.

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