Price trend

Last week (January 12-16, 2026), polyester filament yarn prices showed an initial stability followed by an increase, then a stalemate. Mainstream specifications of POY/FDY/DTY rose by 50-100 RMB/ton during the week. On Friday, prices stabilized due to a correction in raw material prices, with actual transactions subject to negotiation. The core drivers were a combination of cost support, supply contraction, and weak demand. According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, as of January 16th, mainstream polyester filament yarn factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6,500-6,800 RMB/ton, DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7,700-8,000 RMB/ton, and FDY (150D/96F) at 6,700-7,000 RMB/ton.

Market analysis

Cost side (dominant factor): At the beginning of the week, the situation in the Middle East pushed up crude oil prices, driving PTA prices higher (domestic market price reached 5,070 RMB/ton on Thursday). Cost support strengthened, and major manufacturers followed suit with price increases. On Thursday, the easing of tensions in Iran and expectations of increased supply from Venezuela led to a decline in crude oil prices, causing PTA to fall by 33 RMB/ton to 5,047 RMB/ton. Cost support weakened, and prices stabilized after the initial increase. The polymerization cost WAs approximately 5,600 RMB/ton, which had a high weight in influencing the price.

Supply side: Weekly capacity utilization rate was 71.8%, a decrease of 0.9% compared to the previous week; POY production decreased by 10%, and FDY production decreased by 15%. There were increased maintenance plans during the Spring Festival period (e.g., the 1.2 million-ton plant in Jiangyin will be shut down from mid-January to March). Inventory levels were neutral to slightly low, and supply was tight for some varieties, supporting prices and limiting price declines.

Demand side: Weaving operating rate was approximately 55-60%, and texturizing was 50-55%. Stockpiling before the Spring Festival is nearing completion, with demand mainly driven by essential replenishment. There was weak willingness to chase higher prices, and bulk transactions were rare, limiting price increases.

Industry landscape: The industry was highly concentrated among leading companies, with strong pricing coordination. Large manufacturers were keen to maintain high prices, while smaller companies follow market trends, resulting in relatively stable pricing.

Market outlook

In the short term, prices are expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend. The mainstream reference price ranges for POY/FDY/DTY are 6,700-6,800/6,950-7,050/7,800-7,900 RMB/ton respectively. Key factors to watch include crude oil and PTA price trends, the progress of polyester plant maintenance, and the final inventory stocking pace of downstream businesses before the Spring Festival.

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