Following the New Year holiday, policy-driven grain supplies have continued to enter the market, now in their second week of release. However, overall market prices remain relatively stable, fluctuating within a narrow range. For instance, the purchase price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning stands at 2,285-2,290 yuan/ton, with moisture content at 15% and bulk density at 700 kg/m³, representing a 10-20 yuan/ton increase compared to pre-holiday levels. Similarly, deep-processing enterprises in Shandong are seeing prices fluctuate around 2,250-2,300 yuan/ton. The core reasons may be twofold: first, strong auction performance; second, positive sentiment among producers, with no panic selling or concentrated offloading. As the Lunar New Year approaches, is there still room for corn prices to rise before the holiday?

Diversified Grain Supply Releases

Currently, the State Grain Reserves Corporation (SGRC) conducts domestic corn auctions with both procurement and sales occurring simultaneously. From January 4 to January 9, SGRC procured a cumulative 110,000 tons, with actual sales of 46,000 tons and a 42% success rate. Sales totaled 305,000 tons, with actual sales of 265,000 tons and an 87% success rate. Cumulative procurement and sales reached 120,000 tons, with actual sales of 68,000 tons and a 57% success rate. From January 12 to 15, sales totaled 148,000 tons, purchases reached 269,000 tons, and combined operations amounted to 272,000 tons. This demonstrates that auctions do not solely release old-crop grain, with the pace continuously adjusting. Notably, purchases in combined operations primarily target corn from the 2025 harvest, indicating procurement activities will inevitably span the first and second quarters. Imported corn continued to be released this week, though at a reduced pace. Last week's cumulative release totaled 389,000 tons (January 6 and 9), while this week's release stands at 108,000 tons (January 13). No announcement was made for January 16. Under current policy adjustments, corn prices are expected to remain stable.

Grassroots Sentiment Eases

Following the New Year, increased policy-driven grain releases have eased sentiment among grassroots producers in Northeast China's production areas. Farmers have shown greater willingness to sell, though prices remain unchanged. Some deep-processing enterprises have even seen slight price hikes due to port price increases. Consequently, market sentiment remains relatively calm, with traders gradually resuming operations to test the waters for purchases, sales, or inventory buildup. In North China, rainfall during the harvest period has slowed local supply. Market activity remains subdued, with low-priced offers lacking volume and high-priced offers struggling to find buyers.

Downstream Stockpiling Shows Variation

As mid-January approaches, downstream enterprises have entered the seasonal stockpiling phase. Theoretically, if inventory levels remain around 30-40 days, stockpiling should conclude by late January. However, some enterprises have already completed their Spring Festival stockpiling, primarily by supplementing supplies through corn auctions. Additionally, recent observations indicate that some feed enterprises have begun reducing commercial feed volumes, while self-breeding and self-raising enterprises maintain stable levels. Furthermore, the post-Spring Festival period will gradually enter the off-season, with production conditions also limiting enterprises' enthusiasm for stockpiling. Moreover, deep-processing enterprises have recently shown relatively “sluggish” performance, mostly responding to price increases passively.

In summary, the domestic corn market is likely to remain stable under policy guidance. The author believes no significant upward or downward momentum is evident for the Spring Festival period. While grassroots suppliers may still face pressure to offload large volumes, if prices drop significantly and offer relative price advantages, market purchasing enthusiasm may resurface. However, given the sluggishness of downstream enterprises, substantial corn price increases could prompt them to switch to more cost-effective substitutes.

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