On January 15, Antaike reported that 55% of China's alumina production capacity is currently operating at a loss, with high-cost facilities incurring losses exceeding CNY200 per ton. Since 2026, a sharp rise in primary aluminum prices has driven a rebound in alumina futures prices. However, spot prices lack sufficient upward momentum due to supply pressures, indicating that industry losses will persist.

Calculations indicate that in December 2025, the weighted average full cost (including taxes) of domestic alumina reached 2,797 RMB/ton, down 73 RMB/ton month-on-month and 297 RMB/ton year-on-year. During the same period, the spot price of alumina fell to ¥2,776/ton, down ¥93 or 3.2% month-on-month. As the price decline exceeded the cost reduction, the domestic alumina industry's loss margin widened in December, with an average loss of ¥21/ton—an increase of ¥20/ton from the previous month. In December, China's alumina production capacity utilization stood at 96.19 million tons/year, with an operating rate of 83.8%, down 0.9 percentage points month-on-month.

Regarding raw material prices, the three major inputs for alumina production all showed downward trends in December, contributing to further reductions in production costs. Bauxite: In December, both domestic and imported bauxite prices saw slight declines due to the persistent downward trend in alumina prices, reducing overall bauxite costs for alumina producers by CNY4 per ton. Caustic soda: Ample supply in the liquid caustic soda market that month, coupled with a slight price drop driven by falling alumina prices, led to a 18-yuan-per-ton decrease in caustic soda costs for alumina production compared to the previous month. Coal: In December, thermal coal prices continued their downward trend due to weak demand and ample supply, reducing alumina production energy costs by CNY43 per ton.

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