SunSirs: Forecast of Global Cement Price Trends in 2026

I. Core Data and Historical Review

Key Global Cement Indicators in 2025

Global cement demand stabilized, with production maintaining at 3.865 billion tons; prior to this, demand had declined for three consecutive years, dropping by 3.2% year-on-year in 2024.

Global cement production in 2025 decreased by over 420 million tons compared to the 2021 peak, a decline of 10%.

Regional performance: Markets such as North Asia, North America, and Western Europe remained weak; major markets (Mexico, Russia, Iran, Indonesia) and some smaller but regionally important markets (Australia, South Africa) underperformed expectations.

Global Cement Export Pattern in 2025

Ranking	Country/Region	Export Category	Export Volume	Key Notes
1	Vietnam	Cement	Approximately 21 million tons	The world's most important cement exporter (20.3 million tons in 2024); the U.S. doubled import tariffs on Vietnam to 20% in August
2	Turkey	Cement	13.9 million tons	-
3	Egypt	Cement	8 million tons	A record high
-	Indonesia	Clinker	Approximately 12.5 million tons	The world's most important clinker exporter
2	Egypt	Clinker	12.4 million tons	A national record
3	Vietnam	Clinker	Just under 12 million tons	-
5	China	Cement	Over 10 million tons (full year)	Significant rise from 13th place in 2024; Customs data (Jan-Nov): 5.91 million tons of cement exported (+29%), 4.28 million tons of clinker exported (+1142%); exports account for a small proportion of domestic production but create competitive pressure on other exporters

II. Outlook for Global Cement Demand in 2026

Macroeconomic Background

IMF forecast: Global GDP is expected to grow by 3.1% year-on-year in 2026 (lower than 3.2% in 2025); advanced economies are projected to grow by approximately 1.5%, while emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by slightly over 4%.

Core Forecast for Global Demand in 2026

Overall demand: Expected to decline by 0.2% year-on-year (including China); excluding China, driven by the expansion of emerging economies, year-on-year growth is expected to reach approximately 5% (1.5% growth in mature markets, 0.3% decline in emerging markets).

Regional Demand Growth Forecast (2026)

Region	Growth Rate	Key Drivers/Constraints
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)	9%	-
Sub-Saharan Africa	7.7%	Energy projects, transportation infrastructure, urban development, and population growth
Southeast Asia	6.6%	Growth potential in Indonesia and Vietnam; however, new regional capacity and export competition suppress prices
Middle East and North Africa (MENA)	5.9%	Sustained high demand supports cement prices
Oceania	5.5%	-
Latin America	6-7%	Improved macroeconomics, recovering public investment, and active construction activities
India (South Asia)	Approximately 6%	Government infrastructure investment, housing construction, and industrialization; a key global demand growth engine
China (North Asia)	Approximately -6%	Lagged impact of real estate sector adjustments; demand unlikely to rebound significantly; supply-side contraction and industry self-regulation support prices
East Asia	-5.4%	-
Western Europe	1.9%	Southern Europe outperforms the UK, France, and Germany
North America	1.9%	Supported by data centers, new energy, and public infrastructure projects; significantly better than the previous forecast of -2%
Central and Eastern Europe	1.3%	Limited growth space; countries like Poland face pressure from cement imports from Ukraine
Russia	Sluggish	Limited demand recovery

Analysis of Key Regional Demand

Asia-Pacific: The world's largest cement consumption market; China's declining demand drags down regional growth, with India and Southeast Asia as key growth contributors.

Middle East and Africa: One of the fastest-growing regions, with overall demand increasing by 7-8%; MENA supports prices, while Sub-Saharan Africa faces intensified competition (new capacity + increasing new entrants).

Latin America: Steady recovery with 6-7% demand growth; recovering public investment drives construction activities.

Mature Markets: Low-speed growth in Europe (+1-2%), North America (+1-2%), and Australia (moderate growth), supported by structural factors; Russia remains sluggish.

III. Judgment on Global Cement Price Trends in 2026

Overall Price Forecast

In local currency terms: The average price is expected to rise by 3-4%; mature markets by approximately 3%, and emerging markets by approximately 4%.

Core drivers of price increases: Cost pass-through, trade protection policies, and carbon emission constraints, rather than a comprehensive strong rebound in demand.

Review of Global Prices in 2025 (Year-on-Year Growth Rate)

Region	Growth Rate	Overall Situation
Southeast Asia	7.9%	-
Western Europe	4.5%	-
CIS	3.0%	-
North America	3.0%	-
Southwest Asia	2.8%	-
Sub-Saharan Africa	2.7%	-
Oceania	1.6%	-
East Asia	1.1%	-
Global (including China)	3.4%	-
Global (excluding China)	3.6%	-

Regional Price Forecast for 2026 (Year-on-Year Growth Rate)

Region	Growth Rate	Key Notes
Southeast Asia	6%	-
MENA	5.0%	-
Western Europe (excluding the UK)	4-10%	Growth accelerated significantly from 1-2% in 2025
China	Approximately 3%	Supported by supply-side contraction rather than a recovery in real estate demand
CIS	2%	-
Central and Eastern Europe	2%	-
North America	-	Expected to recover part of the profit losses from incomplete cost inflation pass-through in 2025
India	3-5%	Short-term price volatility; new capacity and the "volume-over-price" market strategy limit growth
UK	Suppressed	CBAM implementation delayed until 2027; intensified import competition
Asia-Pacific (excluding China and India)	Limited momentum	Export price pressure from Vietnam and Indonesia lowering FOB prices; constrained regional import prices
Latin America	1%	-
Sub-Saharan Africa	1%	-
Oceania	3%	-
Global (including China)	3.5%	-
Global (excluding China)	3.9%	-
Mature Markets	2.9%	-
Emerging Markets	3.9%	MENA and Latin America offer significant price upside, leading performance among emerging markets

Price Drivers

Energy costs: A key cost variable; volatility has eased but remains at a long-term high, continuously driving price increases.

Decarbonization and environmental policies: The gradual implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the continuous reduction of free allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) have improved the pricing environment in Western Europe and enhanced the bargaining power of local producers.

Trade protection measures: Tariffs, anti-dumping duties, and carbon-related barriers increase import costs, supporting price recovery in mature markets.

IV. Key Influencing Variables for the Industry in 2026

Government infrastructure investment: Remains the core driver of global cement demand.

Urbanization: Population concentration in cities in emerging economies continues to drive long-term demand.

Energy and decarbonization pressures: Profoundly reshape cost structures and industry competition patterns.

Capacity and competition landscape: Oversupply in some regions restricts price recovery potential.

V. Conclusions and Outlook

Overall Industry Pattern: The global cement industry will exhibit a trend of "stable but differentiated demand and moderate price recovery" in 2026; emerging markets are the main support for global demand growth, while price improvements in mature markets rely more on policy and cost pass-through mechanisms.

China Market Positioning: Still in an adjustment cycle, with supply-side changes helping stabilize prices.

Industry Transformation Direction: Price trends are shifting from "demand-driven" to a new phase of "policy, cost, and structure-driven"; the divergence in corporate profitability is expected to widen further. Producers with advantages in cost control, regional layout, and low-carbon transformation are poised to gain a more favorable position in 2026.

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